SPX - daily TF breaking down again - santa rally cancelled?

SPX is breaking down in a big way yet again...

From the October lows the S&P has formed another rising wedge (in orange) again, reaching the top of the resistance trendline from ATHs and the 200 day SMA again - only to be rejected again...

Clean view of Moving Averages - 200SMA in purple rejected yet again (50sma, 100sma, 200sma)

VIX daily chart bottoming

Daily SPX chart with VIX and VVIX shown in the separate panes below (VIX bottoming and VVIX nearing a breakout)

DXY daily chart looks like it's about to break out / up

Trade ativo:

Interestingly the 2008 fractal is still being followed somewhat - I have shared this before in previous ideas

Just because it fits so well doesn't mean it will happen again though

Trade ativo:

SPX daily latest view (yellow arrows) - with VIX and VVIX beneath...

The path into March is the same - the path over the next 1-2 weeks is not (there is a possibility we get a small dead cat bounce during the low volume holiday period)

Trade ativo:

Santa rally is indeed cancelled - seems we might drop into next week too (original yellow scenario)

Comentário:

SPX has broken out of the consolidation of the last 2 weeks - the breakout candle was Friday, however yesterday printed a large bearish doji candle...

The key question for the week ahead will be whether this is indeed a MACD bullish crossover and start of a new leg up, or whether it will be another fakeout (similar to April and September in yellow)...

Powell speaks today and the December CPI reading is out on this Thursday 12th Jan - time will tell...