SP500#1: HOW DOES NONFARM AFFECT SP500?

🔎 1/ Fundamental Analysis

🟥 Political tensions:

• The US increases pressure on Russia through energy sanctions. This could lead to trade retaliation, negatively affecting the economy.

🟥 Interest rate policy:
• Interest rates are likely to remain unchanged until June, limiting the amount of money injected into the market – causing concern.

🟥 CPI data next week:
• Inflation is the biggest determinant of interest rate policy. Forecasts show that inflation is likely to increase again, continuing to put pressure on the market.

💡 Basic conclusion:
The market faces a less optimistic sentiment due to increasing economic and political risks.

📊 2/ Technical Analysis

🔵 W (Weekly) Frame:
• This week closed with a long-tailed, long-bodied candle – a strong bearish sign.

🔵 D (Daily) Frame:
• The bearish structure was confirmed after Friday's trading session.

🔵 H1 (Hourly) Frame:
• The bearish price structure is clear: consecutive lower highs, the support trendline is broken.

💡 Summary:
All three timeframes are supporting the downtrend.

📈 3/ Trading Plan

🟢 Correction strategy:
• Support zone: 5676~5750.
👉 Wait for price reaction at this zone to find an opportunity to enter the order.

⚠️ Note: The weekly candle closes badly, profit expectations should not be too high. Do not rush to catch the bottom!

🔴 Trade in the direction of the trend:

Resistance zone: 5890~5915.

👉 Plan: Wait for the price to react at the resistance zone to enter a sell order in the direction of the trend.

🎯 Profit target: 5680 - strong support zone.

❓ Which side are you on - BULL or BEAR?

💬 Leave a comment to discuss and exchange!