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Did stocks just bottom? Are they going higher or lower?
It looks like stocks bottomed today, but what is my evidence, and why would I say that?
1. This correction has been very orderly, and VIX has been going down along with stocks, which means something is happening.
2. Stocks have held exceptionally well despite rising interest rates and the DXY.
3. We have continuous liquidity injections by most central banks, and that doesn't just mean the BoJ and PBoC. Since the Sep-Nov issues that bond markets faced globally, even the Fed and Treasury have increased market liquidity.
4. Current debts can't be repaid. That's why bonds are going down (yields up). There is no way governments can't pay these dividends through taxation and can only repay them with printed money. Now you can hold both a depreciating asset that pays dividends and riskier assets. Chasing a fool's yield isn't ideal, but it's a strategy. Higher yields = more money supply will be created. High inflation isn't necessarily bad for stock markets, contrary to what the majority wrongly believes.
5. During this correction, sentiment has become increasingly bearish, with most investors being bearish.
At the CryptoBullSociety, in private channels, as well as on my Twitter account, I have been talking about the market piercing the 200 DMA and bottoming. Yesterday I shared bullish ideas on Tradingview for metals and Chinese stocks, which also permeates to US stocks after such a substantial rise since Oct 2022; the market needed to test bulls and, as usual, pull into the golden cross before going higher. On their way up, stocks swept some highs and filled some gaps, but some gaps were left unfilled higher, along with some newly formed double tops. Even if markets are about to go lower, I believe SPX will first test 4350-4400 and then go lower. By lower, I mean more of a sideways market than a continuation of the bear market or an outright crash. So far, we have seen the major US indices pull into their crosses, test support, sweep lows, and today form a reversal candle. Below are many US-related charts showing all the potential targets (double tops, double bottoms, etc.). The reason why I call them targets is that the market tends to break these structures. As we've been trending higher, it's more likely we will first take out the double tops and then the double bottoms.
Currently, nothing indicates a crash, while there are indications of a bottom being in. To be clear, I am not saying we are ready to fly to the moon tomorrow, although we could. Given the system's structure, with most governments being broke, more money will be created. Below you can see some charts of other stock markets, like the GER40 (DAX), UK100 (FTSE), and CN50 (CHINA). I also added the S&P500 value index, IVE. UK100 is at new ATHs, GER40 near highs seem to be in tight consolidation before expansion, CN50 appears to be back in a bullish trend after capitulation (something I talked about in yesterday's idea, which you can find below), and IVE almost made new ATHs a few weeks ago.
My overall point is that sentiment is bearish, while I believe liquidity will keep increasing, causing a short squeeze that could last at least until SPX gets to 4350. As I've mentioned in my previous ideas, it's unlikely that we would get a 2000 or 2008 crash so quickly after the Fed started tightening, and if we get one, it will probably be in Q4 2023 or Q1 2024. The path I've drawn in the chart is what I see as the most likely one, followed by another significant correction. Of course, I could be wrong, so my stop loss is at 3840
1. This correction has been very orderly, and VIX has been going down along with stocks, which means something is happening.
2. Stocks have held exceptionally well despite rising interest rates and the DXY.
3. We have continuous liquidity injections by most central banks, and that doesn't just mean the BoJ and PBoC. Since the Sep-Nov issues that bond markets faced globally, even the Fed and Treasury have increased market liquidity.
4. Current debts can't be repaid. That's why bonds are going down (yields up). There is no way governments can't pay these dividends through taxation and can only repay them with printed money. Now you can hold both a depreciating asset that pays dividends and riskier assets. Chasing a fool's yield isn't ideal, but it's a strategy. Higher yields = more money supply will be created. High inflation isn't necessarily bad for stock markets, contrary to what the majority wrongly believes.
5. During this correction, sentiment has become increasingly bearish, with most investors being bearish.
At the CryptoBullSociety, in private channels, as well as on my Twitter account, I have been talking about the market piercing the 200 DMA and bottoming. Yesterday I shared bullish ideas on Tradingview for metals and Chinese stocks, which also permeates to US stocks after such a substantial rise since Oct 2022; the market needed to test bulls and, as usual, pull into the golden cross before going higher. On their way up, stocks swept some highs and filled some gaps, but some gaps were left unfilled higher, along with some newly formed double tops. Even if markets are about to go lower, I believe SPX will first test 4350-4400 and then go lower. By lower, I mean more of a sideways market than a continuation of the bear market or an outright crash. So far, we have seen the major US indices pull into their crosses, test support, sweep lows, and today form a reversal candle. Below are many US-related charts showing all the potential targets (double tops, double bottoms, etc.). The reason why I call them targets is that the market tends to break these structures. As we've been trending higher, it's more likely we will first take out the double tops and then the double bottoms.
Currently, nothing indicates a crash, while there are indications of a bottom being in. To be clear, I am not saying we are ready to fly to the moon tomorrow, although we could. Given the system's structure, with most governments being broke, more money will be created. Below you can see some charts of other stock markets, like the GER40 (DAX), UK100 (FTSE), and CN50 (CHINA). I also added the S&P500 value index, IVE. UK100 is at new ATHs, GER40 near highs seem to be in tight consolidation before expansion, CN50 appears to be back in a bullish trend after capitulation (something I talked about in yesterday's idea, which you can find below), and IVE almost made new ATHs a few weeks ago.
My overall point is that sentiment is bearish, while I believe liquidity will keep increasing, causing a short squeeze that could last at least until SPX gets to 4350. As I've mentioned in my previous ideas, it's unlikely that we would get a 2000 or 2008 crash so quickly after the Fed started tightening, and if we get one, it will probably be in Q4 2023 or Q1 2024. The path I've drawn in the chart is what I see as the most likely one, followed by another significant correction. Of course, I could be wrong, so my stop loss is at 3840
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