The last 3 market cycles have something in common - they all seem to last for about 7 years with a rising trend for the first 5 years and a consecutive decline for the next 2. Irrational exuberance or?...
Some arguments for reflection follow:
1) rising USD would/should hurt U.S. equity earnings in near term. If innovation does not negate the effect of rising oversea costs and declining revenues in USD terms, the effect of the strong USD might be more strong than market participants anticipate.
2) rising USD would make more expensive for foreigners to buy U.S. treasuries! This could hurt the inflow towards the U.S. government and put more pressure on the FED to rise rates in order to attract interest.
3) rising interest rates in the U.S. - although this is still in the area of speculations, the improving, at least on paper, jobs conditions in the U.S. should increase the urge for a rate hike in order to prevent the economy from overheating.
With all this in mind the question regarding the last 2 years of the current cycle pops by itself - "Are we there yet?"
Comments would be welcomed.
Some arguments for reflection follow:
1) rising USD would/should hurt U.S. equity earnings in near term. If innovation does not negate the effect of rising oversea costs and declining revenues in USD terms, the effect of the strong USD might be more strong than market participants anticipate.
2) rising USD would make more expensive for foreigners to buy U.S. treasuries! This could hurt the inflow towards the U.S. government and put more pressure on the FED to rise rates in order to attract interest.
3) rising interest rates in the U.S. - although this is still in the area of speculations, the improving, at least on paper, jobs conditions in the U.S. should increase the urge for a rate hike in order to prevent the economy from overheating.
With all this in mind the question regarding the last 2 years of the current cycle pops by itself - "Are we there yet?"
Comments would be welcomed.