SPX update

if the price close over the channel that means wave 5 is actually done / to make sure we need to reclaim the resistance around 3700 / going above wave 4 will make me 99% sure that we will have a good bounce.

another scenario is wave 5 is not done yet

Zoom out

scenario 1

scenario 2

scenario 3

I'm watching the confirmation for the second scenario / the first & second scenarios are very similar and take us in the same direction at the end

the 3rd scenario is the bullish one I will wait for confirmation then I will make an update

overall I'm bearish but yeah there's a chance for a bounce in the mid-term

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30m frame
S&P futures

for now, it looks like a corrective wave, not an impulse

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The more powerful the relief rally gets, the more brutally it will get retraced.

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look like scenario 1 is active but there is still a chance for scenario 2 to play

the last move may be a flat wave that continues rising or the beginning of wave 3 from 5
by the market closing today we will know more

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This is how the flat wave could look like
I will go on with this scenario, it's the same idea as scenario 2 above

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usually wave B takes the same time or less than A to completed

it took 5-6 days for A

the wave C which contains 5 waves will take longer

don't expect a big relief rally

~3900 will be a good resistance

if you want to know why I chose scenario 2 read the text at the beginning of this idea

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it was a pretty crazy day

I will show you my idea for the previous & next micro-movements

I detailed the wave B which has 3 movements inside (a,b,c) so I think the wave b is a flat wave inside bi / expanded flat to be clear

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To make it more understandable

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the last update failed
it was going good until it went above the red line

anyway that was a micro-movement the main idea is scenario 2 in the beginning

I will put the chart here

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this is how the micro scenario look
this A,B,C is a part of wave 2
look at the last update to understand

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alphabet Earning & Revenue is after 35m + Microsoft

I don't think google E & R will be bullish

There is another scenario besides the one above but I didn't share it cuz the movement is more bullish

the other scenario is we are forming 5 waves from A

for now, the micro scenario is the chart in the previous update

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quick update

the movement is still in the scenario range
still active

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UPDATE

Trade fechado: stop atingido:

I'm still bearish
this is a micro move, properly the last corrective didn't finish (wave 2)
I will make an update soon as possible