SPX Long Term 2023 View
Atualizado
This is my primary market roadmap for what's to unfold this year while I trade ST swings in both directions and will be updated as PA evolves because this is just an idea speculation considering all market factors and not a fancy astrology prediction.
The idea suggests a bear market that began at the beginning of 2022 with a wave 1 bottom in October and is currently in a bear market rally. Yes, this is a bear market rally and it is not coming from herd interpretation or loose contrarian beliefs, just mechanics of financial market cycle. And it is still a bear market rally even if it sweeps off ATH - remember Bitcoin Nov '21? Even though Bitcoin did make a new high then, the bull market ended in April '21. Retraces that come in X waves after a deep penetration down can go much deep and even new ATH if the positioning and market dynamics are such. This isn't just a minor top, I consider this a top for the century - a bull market from 1932, and rightly so distribution at the top can take much longer than previous minor bull market tops. Just because we had almost a year of a bear market doesn't suggest a bottom is in, it's not that rudimentary :-)
In MT, my primary bias is for a pullback near ~4300 to ~4050 before rallying further to ~4450, there is no clear sign from momentum as of today that this pullback can occur, so first would like to see some sort of reaction in the area and then put a divergent top which could signal an ST pullback incoming.
But, in the case where the price just breaks through the resistance near 4300 aggressively and reaches ~4450 without a pullback, then the final top goalposts might need to be moved further. Yes, "goalposts" are to be moved in trading from time to time, ever heard of trailing stops? runners? It isn't black or white and nothing's certain, one only needs to react to the developing PA. Some TA analysts here who just paper trade and draw pretty charts don't seem to get this.
In terms of the timeline for the big top, June end and August end are of interest to me.
The idea suggests a bear market that began at the beginning of 2022 with a wave 1 bottom in October and is currently in a bear market rally. Yes, this is a bear market rally and it is not coming from herd interpretation or loose contrarian beliefs, just mechanics of financial market cycle. And it is still a bear market rally even if it sweeps off ATH - remember Bitcoin Nov '21? Even though Bitcoin did make a new high then, the bull market ended in April '21. Retraces that come in X waves after a deep penetration down can go much deep and even new ATH if the positioning and market dynamics are such. This isn't just a minor top, I consider this a top for the century - a bull market from 1932, and rightly so distribution at the top can take much longer than previous minor bull market tops. Just because we had almost a year of a bear market doesn't suggest a bottom is in, it's not that rudimentary :-)
In MT, my primary bias is for a pullback near ~4300 to ~4050 before rallying further to ~4450, there is no clear sign from momentum as of today that this pullback can occur, so first would like to see some sort of reaction in the area and then put a divergent top which could signal an ST pullback incoming.
But, in the case where the price just breaks through the resistance near 4300 aggressively and reaches ~4450 without a pullback, then the final top goalposts might need to be moved further. Yes, "goalposts" are to be moved in trading from time to time, ever heard of trailing stops? runners? It isn't black or white and nothing's certain, one only needs to react to the developing PA. Some TA analysts here who just paper trade and draw pretty charts don't seem to get this.
In terms of the timeline for the big top, June end and August end are of interest to me.
Nota
ES has a cleaner look for a zig zag correction to ~4500Nota
During market crashes yields plummet along with equities in flight for safety and also they tend to lead in the decline. But here as we see 10-year yield divergence is suggesting equities can retest ATH once more before the crash. This also aligns with previous market behavior where equities rally on rate pause leading to recession - a "Sucker Rally" essentially.
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