Theory 2 of 3 for SPX
I have narrowed the likely future paths down to 3 theories.
THEORY TWO: Current position is Intermediate wave 4 of Primary wave 1 of Cycle A of Supercycle 2.
Theory 2 still has the bear market finding a final bottom 5-8 years from now. The path for the next month would see the market move up for a few more weeks as it attempts to finish Intermediate wave 4 (PINK). It appears Minor wave A (YELLOW) has concluded and it is even possible the low 2 days later was the end of Minor wave B down. It remains possible for further downswing this week to complete Minor wave B but it likely will not pass below the June low at 3636.87. Wave B CAN go below this level but it would bounce above it quickly.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/qbVLCToJ/
IMPORTANT MOVES:
There are no duration restrictions on future movement at this time. A break above 3945 before a drop below 3636 would continue to keep this theory in play.
PROS:
If this model holds out, it will provide ample time for investors to ride the waves up and down during the current recession.
CONS:
The correction at the beginning of the millennium saw the overall decline last for about 9 years (March 2000 – March 2009). This was a larger macro event then our current correction. It is unlikely that this event will last nearly as long as that one. This would likely imply the current political pressures on the market are not resolved until after the 2028 election cycle.
THEORY TWO: Current position is Intermediate wave 4 of Primary wave 1 of Cycle A of Supercycle 2.
Theory 2 still has the bear market finding a final bottom 5-8 years from now. The path for the next month would see the market move up for a few more weeks as it attempts to finish Intermediate wave 4 (PINK). It appears Minor wave A (YELLOW) has concluded and it is even possible the low 2 days later was the end of Minor wave B down. It remains possible for further downswing this week to complete Minor wave B but it likely will not pass below the June low at 3636.87. Wave B CAN go below this level but it would bounce above it quickly.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/qbVLCToJ/
IMPORTANT MOVES:
There are no duration restrictions on future movement at this time. A break above 3945 before a drop below 3636 would continue to keep this theory in play.
PROS:
If this model holds out, it will provide ample time for investors to ride the waves up and down during the current recession.
CONS:
The correction at the beginning of the millennium saw the overall decline last for about 9 years (March 2000 – March 2009). This was a larger macro event then our current correction. It is unlikely that this event will last nearly as long as that one. This would likely imply the current political pressures on the market are not resolved until after the 2028 election cycle.
All forecasts are based on analysis of past behavior. Prior movements are not always indicative of future movement. Develop the theory, test the theory. Do your own research. Nothing in this analysis constitutes advice. YouTube For More. Good luck!!
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