Long cycle projected lows and highs for the S&P 500

15 de ago. de 2022

The idea is to take a long perspective using RSI and On Balance Volume OBV to project a possible timeline for expected lows and highs in the near to medium term future. The starting point is point A (1st Nov, 1994). Point B (3rd June 1996), Point C (3Sept, 2002), Point D (2nd April 2007), Point E (2nd Feb 2009), Point F (2ns May 2011), Point G (3rd Oct 2011), Point H (1st Nov 2013), Point I (1st Feb 2016), Point J (2nd Jan 2018), Point K (2nd March 2020), and Point L (1st Sept 2021), leading to a projected point M. From here M = A and the process begins again. Using May - June 1996 as the high in RSI 12 years and 10 months from this date is the 2nd of Feb 2009 low. Projecting from this date 14 years and 9 months to 16 years and 3 months gives us the dates August 2023 to January 2025 as the range of time when the next cycle high in the market is expected to occur. I am using the period of 14 years and 3 months because that is the shortest long interval on record and 16 years and 3 months is the longest long interval on record. Therefore somewhere in-between these two dates is the highest probability of being correct. This is not to say that it is impossible for them to be wrong. On balance they are the most likely to happen. The plan is to use the OBV to make decisions about when to accumulate. This is when it gets close to the bottom part of the parallel channel. When RSI is to used when it gets close to the projected point M. Selling to purchase other assets should occur between August 2023 and Jan 2025.