Possible Wild Week Before More Months of Decline

13 de mar. de 2022

This chart depicts potential movement over the next 2 weeks based on my application of Elliott Wave Theory and historical data for the S&P 500. I currently have the index in in Sub-Millennial wave 1 (began June 1877), Grand SuperCycle wave 5 (began March 6, 2009), SuperCycle wave 3 (began March 23, 2020), Cycle wave 2 (began January 4, 2022), Primary wave B (began February 24, 2022), Intermediate wave C (began March 8, 2022). I have two sets of targets based on my analysis of Primary wave B and its historical relationships as well as Intermediate C in Primary B and its historical relationships.
Primary B (1532B)
Primary B began when Primary wave A ended on February 24, 2022 at 4114.65. Primary A began on January 4, 2022 when the market topped at 4818.62. Primary A lasted 35 trading days and dropped 703.97 points from top to bottom which is a rise over run (R/R) (move / days) of -20.113.
My models forecast Primary B to last 4, 13, 18, 19, or 28 days based on similar 32B wave data. The most agreement is on 18 days, with secondary agreement on 13, 19, and 28. For context, day 13 is March 15, 18 is March 22, 19 is March 29, and 28 is April 5.
My models further forecast the end of this wave occurring between 4498.62 and 4567.92. There are two pockets of agreement for the possible end. The first is 4498.62, 4498.63, and 4498.67. The second is slightly larger with 4555.33, 4555.36, 4559.33). Additional data comes from the historical R/R data observed in a Primary B. I have applied R/R data to the potential length outcomes from the beginning of the prior paragraph. If Primary B lasts 18 days, the application of a historical R/R of 23.404 gives us a target price of 4535.92. Staying with 18 days there is another R/R pointing to 4567.92. At 19 days, R/R data of 23.404 places a target area of 4559.33. Lastly, a 28 length with historical R/R of 14.496 points to 4520.53.
Another analyzed dataset comes from the relationship of the move between Primary A and Primary B (simple division of A/B). The historical ratios applied to A’s move of 703.97 provides the following targets: 4498.63, 4555.35, 4613.67, 4654.20, and 4769.09.
Intermediate C (1532BC)
Intermediate C is believed to have begun on March 8, 2022 when Intermediate B concluded its 3 wave pattern downward. Intermediate wave C should be comprised of 5 Minor waves ultimately leading upward. Identifying waves current waves requires skill and is not always perfect. I believe we finished Minor wave 1 (up) on March 9 at 3:33 pm EDT. As of now, I have Minor 2 finishing at the Friday closing low of 4200.49 at 3:59 pm EDT. I do not like to identify the end of a wave in the present as it almost always is wrong. If we gap up on Monday, this may confirm Minor 2 has ended. Which would put the market in wave 3 which should easily surpass the Minor 1 top of 4299.40 within the next 2-3 days.
My models forecast Intermediate C to last 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 11, 12, 14, or 17 trading days. The strongest agreement is 6 days (8 data points) followed by 5 days (7). Day 5 is March 15 and day 6 is March 16 which also align with the dates from the forecasts based on Primary B.
The price targets range wider than before with 4422.51-4592.93. This range contain 3 pockets of interest with the strongest agreement in the 4572-4587 range. Pocket 2 is 4497-4512 and 3 is 4422-4437. All prices of interest are:
Pocket 3 = 4422.51, 4423.777, 4424.333, 4427.557, 4429.953, 4430.19, 4434.144
Additional = 4439.81-4443.654-4447.915-4448.556-4454.057-4459.259-4463.06-4466.083-4467.93-4469.093-4475.106-4484.17-4486.8
Pocket 2 = 4497.004, 4498.72, 4503.082, 4504.61, 4506.658, 4507.996, 4509.491, 4510.29
Additional = 4512.412-4515.101-4519.56-4520.647-4528.104-4529.941-4533.79-4533.86-4548.6-4550.257-4554.416-4556.682-4559.29-4569.676-4571.012
Pocket 1 = 4574.69, 4575.31, 4575.67, 4578.87, 4580.78, 4581.663, 4584.838
Additional = 4585.802-4586.547-4586.601-4589.385-4591.954-4592.937
Another analytic model determines the relationship between wave C’s movement and the total movement of the larger wave, in this case the larger wave is Primary B. Movement for waves ending in 2BC tend to makeup between 59-95% of the overall macro wave’s movement. Similar to waves ending in 2BC are wave ending in 4BC or BBC. 4BC waves similarly make up 36-99%, while BBC can makeup 30-95%. Intermediate C’s movement would have to make up 86% or greater then the entire movement for Primary B in order for any of the current targets above to be achieved. The reason for this is that Intermediate B nearly retraced 100% of all the gains achieved by Intermediate wave A (actual retracement was 86.303%). Use the table below considering if Intermediate C’s movement makes up x% of Primary B’s movement, this coincides with the listed price targets:
86% = 4422.51-4430.19
87% = 4439.81-4454.057
88% = 4463.06-4486.80
89% = 4497.00-4520.647
90% = 4533.79-4559.29
90.49% (a prior value) = 4554.416-4584.838
91% = 4578.87-4611.34
These are the reasons for my forecast squares in the chart above. We shall see what actually takes place. Regardless, we could be looking at quick and large movement up in the very near-term. Primary C is next which could take the market down well below 3931.00 with a bottom between May 11 and June 2. I will provide more context as we complete more waves.