JHEQX Quarterly Expiry Expected Distributions
The most likely outcome for JHEQX this quarter is outlined in A|B|C outcomes below.
A) 4065 - The market has been bearish for an entire year, this trend would break the 200MA / 1yr 2 dev trend line.
B) 3630 - Sideways and Down would need to move JHEQX below the roll strike early. After this months OPEX and before JHQDX expires in Jan31
C) 3060 - Cem Karsan’s March 2020 prediction repeat of Negative Vanna Exposure (40-80 VIX) during JHEQX window of weakness (more on this in future ideas).
This 1 year regression trend with 2 standard deviation upper and lower gives you a better idea of just how evenly this bear market has been distributed.
Here are some key patterns I look out for in a quarter.
Gamma Squeeze: Is when nearing expiry of JHEQX during very bearish sentiment.
I have outlined this occurrence in detail in the past.
Window of Weakness: Is the point when OPEX and VOLEX has been unpinned but the JHEQX expiry is nearing expiration and most effected by VANNA and GAMMA exposure.
This could be a sell the rip OR buy the dip occurrence as we saw back in
Vanna Trap: is something I have been working on. It occurs very frequently now because of 0DTE and the front running of the big option expiry pin. I broke this down live during the last week or so of the expiry.
Volatility Trends are tightly correlated with JHEQX.
Vol Comp / Vanna Rally Short Squeezes: has been demonstrated throughout several of my ideas in the past.
This is when you get the slow grind higher courtesy of well supplied volatility.
Cem Karsan refers to it as the Summer of George. Banana/Gorilla.
Take notice of the trend pattern for the quarterly expirations for 2022 and you will see the trend after expiration is the trend to follow.
Right now the trend is positive (over the yellow line). Should the dealers start moving into negative deltas (selling short) this week, JHEQX flows become muted. The move up in the strikes zero gamma pivot is up over 6% since last quarter.
This would mean the keep calm 4k on trend will have another chance at breaking that upper 2 deviation trend line (200 day moving average).
Any questions, feel free to DM or leave a comment.
A) 4065 - The market has been bearish for an entire year, this trend would break the 200MA / 1yr 2 dev trend line.
B) 3630 - Sideways and Down would need to move JHEQX below the roll strike early. After this months OPEX and before JHQDX expires in Jan31
C) 3060 - Cem Karsan’s March 2020 prediction repeat of Negative Vanna Exposure (40-80 VIX) during JHEQX window of weakness (more on this in future ideas).
This 1 year regression trend with 2 standard deviation upper and lower gives you a better idea of just how evenly this bear market has been distributed.
Here are some key patterns I look out for in a quarter.
Gamma Squeeze: Is when nearing expiry of JHEQX during very bearish sentiment.
I have outlined this occurrence in detail in the past.
Window of Weakness: Is the point when OPEX and VOLEX has been unpinned but the JHEQX expiry is nearing expiration and most effected by VANNA and GAMMA exposure.
This could be a sell the rip OR buy the dip occurrence as we saw back in
Vanna Trap: is something I have been working on. It occurs very frequently now because of 0DTE and the front running of the big option expiry pin. I broke this down live during the last week or so of the expiry.
Volatility Trends are tightly correlated with JHEQX.
Vol Comp / Vanna Rally Short Squeezes: has been demonstrated throughout several of my ideas in the past.
This is when you get the slow grind higher courtesy of well supplied volatility.
Cem Karsan refers to it as the Summer of George. Banana/Gorilla.
Take notice of the trend pattern for the quarterly expirations for 2022 and you will see the trend after expiration is the trend to follow.
Right now the trend is positive (over the yellow line). Should the dealers start moving into negative deltas (selling short) this week, JHEQX flows become muted. The move up in the strikes zero gamma pivot is up over 6% since last quarter.
This would mean the keep calm 4k on trend will have another chance at breaking that upper 2 deviation trend line (200 day moving average).
Any questions, feel free to DM or leave a comment.
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