SP500 "Very long term projection" Weekly Chart

15 de jan. de 2018

SO please do not mind the messiness of this chart as I had to go to the weekly view and zoom way out which squishes everything together. I made a long term chart about a month or so ago and realized that my topping date was incorrect. You see, I truly believe that Trump will not get re-elected for a second term and I am using that as the trigger date. Just my guess on that. I originally, mistakenly thought that the election date was November 2019, but it is really 2020. So I had to move the election line and have two channels for two possible target areas. (obviously this is just a guess but lets have some fun shall we). The first black lined channel is narrowing as you can see. This is the line that hits the tops of this long bull run that started in 2009. If we only maintained that channel then the top of that channel by election time is around SP500 4300 - 4400 which should equate to DOW 38,000 - 40,000. (Not too shabby if you ask me). BUT. Does that really look like a parabolic bubble phase that has been spoken so much about. No it does not. SO what is the market capable of. I went back to the 1990's and mapped out the trajectory of price for that 5th wave of the large 3rd wave. That is what a bubble parabolic looks like. So first I took the bottom line of the channel and copy/pasted it to make an alternate upper channel that is parrellel. Then I took the 1990's price action and placed it to cover the next 3 years. And what do you know, that looks like a very good parabolic bubble phase and coincidently reaches the top of that upper channel around election time. Wild guess, I know. But why not. If, as you can see, we happen to reach that area then that would equate to DOW 48,000 - 50,000. And that is how these people have come up with Dow 50,000.
At that point Gold should be bottoming at that point and everything should be in a bubble. I would be selling my house around that time if this transpires and buying a ton a physical gold and silver. GL

18 de jan. de 2018

Nota

19 de jan. de 2018

Nota

Well the house passed their budget this evening. So that has averted what I was thinking could've been a market trigger. At least until the senate has to vote on Feb 15th or 16th. However, I think Ill sell my JDST position tomorrow and Wait to jump into Tvix once the SP500 reaches around the 2838 range.

On a side note....Oil is still lingering and is way way past its ICL drop. Any day now it should drop hard. Look for it to reach the 200 DMA. Oil (DWT) is probably a much safer bet that anything else right now.

21 de jan. de 2018

Nota

NEW VIDEO!
So that lady Lara sent out another video. Sometimes she releases a few and then stops for a couple months so this is kind of nice to compare ideas. This video has 3 different analysis in one video. Gold, SP500 and Oil with Oil being the most shocking. Please check out her video "Elliot wave by Lara". Her ideas are very similar to mine. The one thing I liked was a 2nd alternate bearish wave count which is something I have been thinking about. If you notice on my charts for gold, I was labeling W,X Y ect. If this is the actual B wave count then gold itself could rise above the 1357 invalidation level (maybe up to the $1400 range) and still be bearish longer term. But I will cross that bridge when I get there.

For the SP500....She is expecting a smaller degree 4th wave to take place very soon, to last 1 - 2 weeks. Then for the market to make higher highs but to form a bearish divergence on RSI while this is going on. That would set up a larger degree 4th wave correction probably by Spring to mid year. Just like I was thinking. Timing for this is the hard part. I'll do my best but you know how timing a market goes. Then, just like I have been thinking....we start the last part of the 5th wave which should really zoom. She was thinking that this could run up to 3 years....Just like I have been saying. SO if you have read that 2018 is going to be a volatile wild ride for the markets....that's what they were referring to...the double 4th wave corrections that we are due for. Funny how all this starts to make sense.

As far as Oil...If she is correct then WOW, what a new low that would be for Oil.