Weekly Volatility Forecast 23-29 May 2022 SPX, SPY, QQQ, NDX

22 de mai. de 2022

SPY 23-29 May 2022

We can based on the last month analysis, that the current volatility is around 5.15%
This is translated into 20$ from the current point.

So lets imagine that SPY is going open Monday candle around 390
With that in mind, with close to 87% probability of pointing correctly the top and bottom places we are going to have:
TOP 390 + 20 -> aprox 410
BOT 390 - 20 -> aprox 370

If we want at the same time to narrow a bit this channel, we can go for close to 76% probability.
In this case the volatility would be around 3.86% => 15$
TOP 390 + 15-> aprox 405
BOT 390 - 15-> aprox 375


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SPX 23-29 May 2022

We can based on the last month analysis, that the current volatility is around 5.15%
This is translated into 200$ from the current point.

So lets imagine that SPX is going open Monday candle around 390
With that in mind, with close to 87% probability of pointing correctly the top and bottom places we are going to have:
TOP 3900 + 200 -> aprox 4100
BOT 3900 - 200 -> aprox 3700

If we want at the same time to narrow a bit this channel, we can go for close to 74% probability.
In this case the volatility would be around 3.86% => 150$
TOP 3900 + 150-> aprox 4050
BOT 3900 - 150-> aprox 3750


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NDX 23-29 May 2022

We can based on the last month analysis, that the current volatility is around 6.85%
This is translated into 800$ from the current point.

So lets imagine that NDX is going open Monday candle around 11900
With that in mind, with close to 87% probability of pointing correctly the top and bottom places we are going to have:
TOP 11900 + 800 -> aprox 12700
BOT 11900 - 800 -> aprox 11100

If we want at the same time to narrow a bit this channel, we can go for close to 75% probability.
In this case the volatility would be around 5.15% => 600$
TOP 11900 + 600 -> aprox 12500
BOT 11900 - 600 -> aprox 11300


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QQQ 23-29 May 2022

We can based on the last month analysis, that the current volatility is around 6.85%
This is translated into 20$ from the current point.

So lets imagine that QQQ is going open Monday candle around 290
With that in mind, with close to 87% probability of pointing correctly the top and bottom places we are going to have:
TOP 290 + 20 -> aprox 310
BOT 290 - 20 -> aprox 270

If we want at the same time to narrow a bit this channel, we can go for close to 75% probability.
In this case the volatility would be around 5.15% => 15$
TOP 290 + 15-> aprox 305
BOT 290 - 15-> aprox 275


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