In QQQ, the implied move for tomorrow is between 492 and 500, based on options data. The 30-day average daily volatility adds a dollar to each direction, giving a range of 491 to 501. On Thursday’s contract, the range is a dollar wider, from 490 to 502. Tesla’s earnings report tomorrow could explain the wider range on Thursday.
The 35 EMA is below us, and though it has been a bit sloppy, it has held as support so far this week. If we continue to hold this level and see it as support, the next target is 499, where we saw resistance last week. Last Monday, we gapped up above the previous bear gap, hit 499, and then met resistance. We haven’t returned to that level since. 499 is just below the top of tomorrow’s implied move at 500, while the top of Thursday’s implied move is at 502.
If we break below the 35 EMA tomorrow, the next target is 492, which is the bottom of the implied move. 490 is the bottom of the implied move on Thursday’s contract. Between these levels, we also have the 30-minute 200 MA and support at 491, which we saw last Thursday and again this Monday. This creates a solid trading range. If we drop tomorrow, the 492/491 bull spreads look good, and a slightly safer option would be the 491/490 bull spreads, as the 30-minute 200 MA would provide additional support.