QQQ Market Open Playbook

The dominant structure from October-November is still up, but momentum has clearly rolled

• Price is now below the anchored VWAP from the November high & hovering just above the VWAP from the November low
  
• This is no longer trend-following territory
  
• It’s range/distribution behavior unless reclaimed quickly
  
• RSI ~mid-50s rolling down; stochastic deeply oversold & still pointing lower so downside pressure not yet exhausted
  
• Failure to hold ~$608-$610 opens a measured move toward the $580-$585, which lines up with prior demand
  

Bias (4H) is neutral to bearish unless VWAP(high) is reclaimed & held



Rising wedge breakdown is clean & confirmed

• The post-break retest failed near $615-$618
  
• Price is below both anchored VWAPs & the VWAP(high) is now acting as resistance
  
• Selling pressure increased on the breakdown, but follow-through has been orderly, not panicked, which suggests controlled distribution, not capitulation
  
• RSI mid-30s & trending lower; stochastic pinned low so no bullish divergence
  
• Bias (1H) is bearish continuation unless price reclaims ~$613-$615 with volume
  

Important nuance is that falling wedges only resolve bullish if they break with expansion & right now, volume is not expanding meaningfully



Double bottom attempt is structurally weak & 2nd low lacks momentum divergence confirmation

• Price is chopping under VWAP(high), which caps upside attempts
  

1. Bullish (lower probability right now)

• Hold $608-$610
  
• Break & hold >$612
  
• Target $615-$618 (VWAP(high) + prior supply)
  

2. Bearish (base case)

• Lose $608
  
• Quick acceptance below $602, then $595, with $580-$585 as the larger 4H objective
  

I’d reassess bearish bias if any 2 of the following occur,

1. Reclaim & hold anchored VWAP from November high
   
2. 1H RSI reclaims >50 & 15m breakout with clear volume expansion
   

Until then, rallies look sell-able, not chase-able

• Premarket at ~$608.50 is sitting on a decision level, not a support you can trust blindly
  

1. Bearish continuation (base case)

Short setup (preferred)

• Price below both anchored VWAPs, post–rising-wedge breakdown, weak momentum
  
• Entry $612-$615
  
• VWAP(high) + prior breakdown shelf
  
• Ideal entry is rejection, not strength
  

Stop (invalidation)

• >$618.50 (15m close)
  
• Above VWAP(high) + structure
  
• Anything above here negates bearish structure
  

Targets

• $608 - range low
  
• $602-$600 - intraday liquidity
  
• $585-$580 - 4H objective, anchored VWAP(low) + prior demand
  

What must be true

• Rallies are overlapping and low-volume
  
• VWAP(high) continues to reject
  
• RSI fails to reclaim 50 on 1H
  

2. Countertrend Long (only if conditions trigger)

Long setup (reaction trade, not trend)

• Entry on a hold of $608-$610 after confirmation
  
• 15m >$612
  
• Volume expansion on breakout
  
• No long if these 3 things don’t happen
  

Stop

• <$607.80
  
• Hard stop; no tolerance
  

Targets

• $615.80-$618.00 (VWAP(high)/supply)
  
• $620-$622 only if acceptance above VWAP(high)
  

This long is mean-reversion only so don't assume trend continuation unless price accepts above $618

3. High-timeframe (most important)

• $608.00
  
• Holding above = range still alive
  
• Losing & accepting below = downside acceleration
  
• If you see fast move below $608, failed reclaim within 1-2 candles (15m), then that’s continuation, not a fakeout
  

1. Bearish alignment

• 1H RSI <45
  
• VWAP(high) overhead
  
• 15m bounces on declining volume
  

2. Bullish shift (requires confirmation)

• 1H RSI >50
  
• VWAP(high) reclaimed and held
  
• 15m breakout with volume > prior average
  
• No divergence = no guessing