Sell NZD, and do it NOW
I'll make this quick, sell the NZD and do it right now. It's had a big move already, but this is probably just the start of much lower prices. Sans a Fed rate cut, the bottom targets are achievable. Don't delay, get short today!
On the long view, this looks like a continuation of wave 3 (red) and I think, sans a near term US rate cut (Moore doesn't become Fed chair next week) the blue target down around 0.5820 is not impossible. I doubt we can reach the red target as the US will have to cut rates if things get that bad, but it's not impossible. I'll update as we go along
On the long view, this looks like a continuation of wave 3 (red) and I think, sans a near term US rate cut (Moore doesn't become Fed chair next week) the blue target down around 0.5820 is not impossible. I doubt we can reach the red target as the US will have to cut rates if things get that bad, but it's not impossible. I'll update as we go along
Nota
If you can't bring yourself to get short into the low (smart trader that you are), wait for the bounce. This is obviously an impulse wave down, so a correction will occur at some point, but we don't know how far it's going to drop initiallyNota
hold hard. Panic on DXY driving us right now. Better times will comeNota
NZ business confidence numbers didn't help NZD sentiment driving it to fresh lows. Now it's trying to have a bounce. I welcome this. So far, it's failed to reach even the first retracement level since the start of this impulse wave down. It might be getting close in the next few hours, but lets see.In the meantime, those tempted to get out, keep this in mind
rbnz.govt.nz/research-and-publications/speeches
There might be something about current policy, there might not be, but if there is, then NZD could get the next leg down. Hopefully we get a nice bounce here and we can start to set up the trade with targets
Nota
If your not in, keep an eye on the hourly retracements. Looks like they might offer a chance at their various levelsNota
The hourly looks ABC corrective currently, so keep your eyes peeled and watch for the next impulsive break downNota
I still have a short in NZD, and still believe it breaks down, but in the meantime, I am going to look to turn my NZDUSD short into an AUDNZD long. I will post a fresh idea on this new trade shortlyTrade fechado manualmente
OK, I have covered this via being long AUD. Still short and want to remain soNota
The AUD data point (NAB confidence and conditions) didn't give me what I was looking for, so I have cut AUD long and reverted back to NZDUSD short. I will revisit this on China Caixin numbersNota
Caixin has put me back in AUDNZD long, soI am currently neutral vs USD, BUT, I am looking to fade NZD a few points higher than here and scaling upNota
I'm short NZD now. It is really suffering under the weight of AUD. AUD could have a big leg down now as the market has read the RBA statement and is now thinking a rate cut could be very soon. I am going to take some profit in NZD on the way down, as this is a big impulse wave, and there will be corrections along the way. All in all though, it's looking goodNota
big test of the structure here. Might not be the worst idea to cover a few up if you feel so inclinedNota
This one starting to really pick up steam now. I am short NZD, but vs AUD and looking at NZDCAD too. The picture on this is all starting to fit. Lower prices, probably around RBNZ rate cut in May (be really cautious on this) might be the finally nail in the coffin
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