12/29/22 Intraday Planning

Hi all and welcome back! Today's market seems like it wants to keep opening traders in suspense with intraday long targets quickly being achieved right from the opening bell. That being said, here are my two main scenarios with a third outlier scenario (this seems to be a handy format!):

Scenario 1 - Opening highs are broken, blocking short targets: In this scenario, the market breaks highs set around the open confirming long momentum. Expect longs towards the weekly open. Intraday targets have been achieved for longs so either a slow grind or unexpected sharp move is possible.
Scenario 2 - Opening highs are not broken and/or opening lows are broken: In this scenario, the market does not breaks highs set around the open. Intraday short targets will then be in play and shorts back into today's opening range can be expected. This scenario gains a higher chance of occurring if opening lows are broken though potential profit will be reduced. Breaking today's low is very unlikely so assess risk accordingly.
Scenario 3 - Opening highs and lows are broken - leaning short: In this VERY UNLIKELY scenario, the market breaks highs and lows set around the open. In this case, expect to lean short into today's range the same as scenario 2. Unexpected late day moves are also possible.

Apologies on the lateness today, I've been super busy! See you all tomorrow and good luck!
Billy_FX_

Nota

Looks like scenario 1 is in play, expecting a pullback to levels below 10845 with good timing for longs. As usual scenario 3 is always possible but unlikely!

Nota

Technical structure was created around London close meaning that a buy off of 10932ish is possible especially as it gets closer to and passes 1 pm. As I planned this morning I will still wait for a pullback towards 10845 with timing as a confirmation. Timing vs pricing may need adjusting with some backtests if I see a reaction from 10932.

NOTE: I post on the NQ ideas page but I typically trade the NAS100 FXCM chart. Approximate equivalent prices are 10932 -> 10960ish (NQ1!) and 10845 -> 10925ish (NQ1!).

Nota

Buys off 10932 area are in a decent amount of reward (at least 2R) and risk can be taken off the table since it is uncertain if this is the correct area for buys.

Nota

Buys off 10932 in a significant amount of profit, this should be a decent move to end the day. I've been collecting some data (today included) to be more reactive in determining a decent entry price; this could lower the amount of deep pullbacks that I expect through timing.

Nota

Market making a lower low off monthly pricing and it is nearing 3 pm, the price listed in previous comments (10932) is near the premium for this move. If you caught around this price I would assess your risk.

Billy_FX_

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