NASDAQ NQ1 - Brace Yourselves, "Fear" is Coming
When people consider the COVID-era market cycle, especially the part where everything went up on a 75 degree angle without any particular pullback for a year and a half, they seem to have been groomed during that long process to consider that normal, and that it's going to happen again.
Well, the truth is that it probably is going to happen again. One really critical characteristic of the 30% retrace we've experienced this year is VIX really could not get beyond 35. The demolition was very controlled, and there was little to no fear.
But now that we've had a two month-long bear market rally/bull trap, it's time for fear to take hold, because you need to capitulate, lose money, and get short so that you can buy back higher in October.
In the conventional bubble cycle, such as in WTI Crude 2008 or like, every Bitcoin/crypto pump and dump, markets have followed the conventional bubble pattern:
However, what I believe we have ahead for us is actually a Bump and Run Reversal (BARR), which will be characterized by a significant, quick, and violent dump below the previous lows.
Then, we go and make a new all time high again and everyone is drawn into the Party like they've got nothing better to do than lose money chasing $200 AAPL.
Actually, this is more or less the idea of what we've already seen manifest in action with Bitcoin (BTC).
Hint: BTC is not going to bounce. Ethereum is going to Flippening instead. And then: Central Bank Digital Currencies.
So what lies ahead over the next few weeks is some monstrous sell offs. With it will come all the chatter about the recession this and interest rates that and inflation and housing crisis and credit crisis oh my!
There's no FOMC this month but I hear that Jackson Hole is August 25 to 27. You can probably expect an intermezzo rate hike that may be a lot heavier than 75 basis points.
Then, probably at the Sept. 20 FOMC, after everything has dumped in an astounding way, the Fed will slash rates back to zero, because "reasons," and then we're off to the races placating society for October midterm political theatre and the setup for January of 2023.
So what should you do? Reduce risk and also don't capitulate. Stop listening to Zerohedge, Bloomberg, and Fintwit. They're all just Fabians leading you to the slaughterhouse.
Buy when there's blood in the streets, a little bit at a time. Don't short the bottom.
Well, the truth is that it probably is going to happen again. One really critical characteristic of the 30% retrace we've experienced this year is VIX really could not get beyond 35. The demolition was very controlled, and there was little to no fear.
But now that we've had a two month-long bear market rally/bull trap, it's time for fear to take hold, because you need to capitulate, lose money, and get short so that you can buy back higher in October.
In the conventional bubble cycle, such as in WTI Crude 2008 or like, every Bitcoin/crypto pump and dump, markets have followed the conventional bubble pattern:
However, what I believe we have ahead for us is actually a Bump and Run Reversal (BARR), which will be characterized by a significant, quick, and violent dump below the previous lows.
Then, we go and make a new all time high again and everyone is drawn into the Party like they've got nothing better to do than lose money chasing $200 AAPL.
Actually, this is more or less the idea of what we've already seen manifest in action with Bitcoin (BTC).
Hint: BTC is not going to bounce. Ethereum is going to Flippening instead. And then: Central Bank Digital Currencies.
So what lies ahead over the next few weeks is some monstrous sell offs. With it will come all the chatter about the recession this and interest rates that and inflation and housing crisis and credit crisis oh my!
There's no FOMC this month but I hear that Jackson Hole is August 25 to 27. You can probably expect an intermezzo rate hike that may be a lot heavier than 75 basis points.
Then, probably at the Sept. 20 FOMC, after everything has dumped in an astounding way, the Fed will slash rates back to zero, because "reasons," and then we're off to the races placating society for October midterm political theatre and the setup for January of 2023.
So what should you do? Reduce risk and also don't capitulate. Stop listening to Zerohedge, Bloomberg, and Fintwit. They're all just Fabians leading you to the slaughterhouse.
Buy when there's blood in the streets, a little bit at a time. Don't short the bottom.
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