NIO's Side movements are getting close to a break Out/Down !

Atualizado

Either we are consolidating, for Wave B then C down or this is some how could be counted as a base for Wave 3 trying to establish a ballistic move up. I have analyzed it extensively mentioning all probable bullish/Bearish out comes with statistics and probabilities. In a nut shell seasonality is favoring a bearish move Vs fundamentals, car production, that are favoring a bullish move. It looks very clear that we have completed a Macros ABC down from ATH. Now this is part, more probably, of a bullish macro move with ups/downs . Risk down is, if you are bullish, (-30%) according to probabilities Risk up if you are bearish is +200% according to probabilities.

Nota

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Our Blue line is 9.20.Today is 9.19 1 day earlier. Break down !!!

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From Elliott wave we could very easily reach 7ish area and beyond !!!

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Look Bearish case above !!!

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Breaking 7, our C Wave of a Macro count is not good, it will invalidated the big ABC count !!! We should wait for seasonality and Fibs numbers to complete a 5 waves motive (Diagonal/Impulsive)

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1/Retracement tgts on the left
2/ Extension tgts on the right
Below the Green line is not good = My Macro count is "Wrong"

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Some of my analysis for the probabilities & stats for NIO Inc prior to Q2 Earnings:
"......To conclude, probability of stats + guidance suggest a beat on revenue & 50-50 on Earnings W/ a range
(-46%)-(-18% ) & a 30% Bullish move starting the day off Earning.
Seasonality: September 63% Bearish
A/(-4.5%) as a Median & Average
B/W/ a range btw +8% - (-16%)
........Therefore the volatility:
A/ The minimum is between +8% - (-16%) (Seasonality)
B/ The maximum is between +30% - (-46%)(Historical stats)
-Starting off the day of Earnings.
* Technical analysis to follow.
........195m RSI ultimate TGT =5.83-3.78
How scary is this if/when it plays out ! We need something really big to go down that far ! Plus against Elliott wave which suggest that we have already bottomed or about to soon and we are in W2 then W3 incoming soon !
.......RSI of MFI Daily:
4 out of the lowest 5 since IPO readings are suggesting a trough is in already! Current reading is 22.68 lowest in 5 Years ! That's 80% probability that we go up from here now or soon. The other 20% probability is (-50%) crash which happened in 3.2019
...........Diver with 2845 ETF is kind off a leading indicator for China's EV MKT. The big difference is that it's happing right know in trough lands. Correlation Coefficient ,bottom, is suggesting that as well We shall see."

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NIO Inc has already achieved the minimum (-16%). Our study, on X, shows that the range is between (-16%) -(-46%) as shown on the chart.

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From our prior analysis, before Q2 Earnings on X:
".......Beside Daily G.Cross that W have analyzed,👆,the MACD on wkly is very interesting According to the chart W R about to have 1 in the next few weeks/days or so After 20's crossing W had (-30%) then a trough W might/could have 1 in 23 as well "All else absolute" OR not! "
*** We just had one !!!

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Some Technical analysis for NIO:
1/ RSI Deviation from it's 21D MA has a range btw (-17%) -(-39%) draw downs, we are already (-19%) !!! $7 is our Max !!!
2/ All else absolute, Price under 21D MA is 2 days from trough lands. Or this could be another false signal.
*** In a nutshell unless we get another shocking news from NIO/Markets, the next 2 weeks is probably trough lands (All else absolute)

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If you are super super bullish here, this is an alternative for impulsive down instead of the 1-2 1-2 set up !

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Seasonality is kicking in till October, if and only if, it plays around and rhythm this September the next pullback could/might take us further down ! Or not and we go up !

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If you do not like the above 2 Elliott counts, this is a 3ed probable count !

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If this plays out as our 1st Elliott wave count, it may look like something like this !

1/ Ideally Wave C should hit the lower line of the channel around $6, but that would invalidate our Macro count of an ABC by breaking below $7

2/ B as a contracting triangle suggests that wave C will not pass .61 Fibs of Wave A @ 6.57 which also will invalidate our Macro ABC Correction by breaking below $7.

3/ Either way, if this count is valid or more parable Wave C could/might be very short dur to the fact that Wave B Macro is a triangle ! ( as seen on top chart main idea)
*** In a nut shell we shall, if this scenario plays out, have 1 more leg down !!!
Alternative is this is W1 of 5 waves down for C of ABC

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If our 2ed wave count, 1-2 nest set up, is in progress then we have couple of points to consider:
1/ B retracement was very shallow <30% of wave A.
2/ Wave C, in this count, usually hits the lower line of the channel connecting B with the start of A = our Macro count will be invalidated due to the fact that we will break below $7 to reach the line.
*** It's still a probability and should be noted and overserved.
*** Counting on small time frames like these is VERY high risk, things can go either way very fast.

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As expected lower low:
1/ 100% Red is finished
2/ Blue could be in progress or finished as well
3/ Green is all what it's matter

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*** Our 1st Triangle count is over you have your trough we should go ballistic up from here for Macro Wave 3

**** Our 2ed count, 1-2 set up nest, is probably in progress if our 1st count is not correct.

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Twitter is full of super, Elliott wave, analyst suggesting we are about to crash in SPX and NDX !!! My worst fear is that NIO Inc follow markets and does break below $7 and the whole count from ATH would be invalidated. Any way, lower low is incoming
with high probability as shown in the chart below !

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Up date: No action here today what so ever.

If our main count, Triangle, is not correct and we are in progress in count #2 then this is how it may play out ( Another probable count) !

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*** WARNING NEXT WEEK FOR D.CROSS ***

Managing high risk area for NIO Inc, when it comes to 195M Death cross:

Q: What happens if all 3-4 bullish count we talkded about did not play out and we get the D.Cross next week ?!

A: Well the picture is not good at all. I did little study on D.Crosses on 195 Minutes 1/2 day chart ( dated September 6th) & the picture is not looking good for Bulls what so ever. As a matter of fact its more like a crash than a correction. ( You can look it up on my X account).

* In a nutshell the out come of this incoming D.Cross, if it happens next week, 80% probability we go further down as far as (-77%) -(-61%) - (-56%) - (-31%) -(-17%) . 20% probability up as the the only exception was in 8.2021 we went up +10% then down (-20%) = Net of (-10%)
*** All 6 cases of D.Cross on 195M since IPO we went down with a range between
(-10%) - (-77%) !!! Let that sink in guys

- Hope for the bullish case, prepare for the worst !!!

Nota

Illustrating this D.Cross , if it happens, is on the chart.

1/If market maker want to be bullish they will use 8.2023 pullback which will not break our $7 Red line for the bullish case and we go up in W 3 Macro.
2/If they want to be bearish we will see things get ugly, like really ugly.

The range is quite big as you can see (Data since IPO & 6 cases), if you are bullish you want to be one the 20% probability camp. If you are super Bearish, you want to be on the 80% probability camp which will eventually lead us close or near by the all time low of $1.

* Note: The range is based on today's price as i am writing this analysis ! Wish you all the best.

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This count is over as well. WXY, Double Ziggy, as wave C has completed 5 waves down! Therefore, we have our Triangle count over + WXY count over as well = we should be in W 3 Macro.
The only probable count left, if you are not bullish yet, a regular Ziggy ABC and we are in the final stage of finishing W C 1 or 2 lower lows to confirm a final trough.
***Risk down is seasonality + D.Cross on 195 Minutes. Or we break <$7 and this whole analysis is basically "Wrong". Wish you the best guys.

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New Alert:

According to news agency out there NIO Inc " is considering raising around $3 billion from investors, according to people familiar with the matter, as questions swirl around the Chinese electric carmaker’s health amid mounting losses.

Shanghai-based Nio has approached investors from the Middle East, the people said, asking not to be identified discussing matters that are private. The fundraising could happen as soon as next year, one of the people said.

In June, Nio raised around $738 million from a share sale to Abu Dhabi’s CYVN Holdings LLC, and earlier this month sold $1 billion of convertible bonds — sparking an almost 20% slump in the company’s US-listed shares.
"

* How are investors going to react to this we shall see. Can they bring it down further < $7 and invalidate or Macro ABC ?! or this is a bear trap and we go up in W3 .
*** 3 Billions is allot of money for an already losing company !!! Last week 1 Billion and we tanked we shall see.

Wish all of us the best in this analysis.

Nota

Today we have finished, confirmed, Red waves and Blue waves. The question is Green waves are still in progress or have finished as well ! Time will tell. Invalidation <$7!

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Last time we had such a cross on MACD, we had a 32% correction. As of now we have thus far a 23% correction (10% is the different) !!!

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Risk to the down side is 7.30 !!!

This area will a "Battle ground" between Bulls and Bears !!!

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If and only if my count is right, we will more probably not pass 8.79 as shown on the chart below. if you believe that we have a trough already or we will break < $7 then this chart is irrelevant to you.

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THIS UP DATE STREAM SHOUCD/COULD BE IN IT'S FINAL POSTS:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
One more final lower low to finish/wrap things up here for the completion
of a macro ABC for Wave 2 = Wave 3 is next up big time. Alternative my count is simply wrong !!!

*************** 7.93 **********************

Nota

RSI of Hong Kong listing (9866) Has more clearer picture of a trough in the "Making" If & only if W rhythm W/ October 2022 + You are Bullish on NIO = By October 25 or even earlier we could/might have a trough W/ 52% bullish move or even bigger ! All else absolute, we are entering trough lands !

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Hong Kong listing (9866):
This does not look like an ABC corrective counter trend !!! Looks to me more like
a 5 waves going down, impulsive !!! Completely different than the ADR of NYSE !!!

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Zoon in on the last Red wave 5 Hong Kong listing :
We are having a lower low soon, if my count is right = regardless of whether it's impulsive or corrective the whole structure looks about to be completed with in 16 trading days or so! Out buddy, A10Equity, is suggesting an impulsive move as well on the ADR. Only time will tell us !

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Another probability for Hong Kong Listing, is WXY (ABC + ABC). The problem with
this count is that WC, of the first ABC structure, is over extended !!!

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Both counts of Hong Kong Listing could/might probably , terminate above 57.60 =($7 ADR NYSE) to meet their respective "Fibs" extensions !!! This scenario will only be acceptable on our bullish based analysis which is my main and preferred count thus far till we break below <$7 !!!

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**************************** Going back to our ADR NYSE NIO Inc *************************

1/ If you are bullish, we are barely holding the Blue channel ! Holding the Blue channel will ultimately = >$20 channel's wise & 30is for W3 !!!
Breaking < $7 = We will hit close to Zero $1-$2 !!!

2/ Analyzing MACD'S Crosses on Weekly TF:
1/ -31% /-31% /-48% /-29% /-68% /-50% /-24%
2/ Above Zero (-31% )-(-48%)
3/ Current (-23%) ( Last cross was above Zero line), if we rhythm with past 2 signals > Zero (#2) we will hit (-31% )-(-48%)

- All else absolute

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Zoom in the Blue channel...

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- Blues have no "Diver" with RSI. Oranges have a "Diver" = A confirmation of a trough !

- Present we do not have a diver = No confirmation of a trough but it's probable
to have none and still we get a trough !

- With out a diver they are making it just harder to analyze !

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Up dating our C wave, last chance for bullish case here ;-)
Q: Is it fare to say that we have completed 5 waves down ?
A: Yes it's fare to say that.

Q: Is it probable that we are in wave 4 then another low to complete wave 5 ( Final one) ?
A: It's very probable to go close to $7.50 -$7.80 for that wave in Flat, Triangle or simple Ziggy . ( Look chart)

Nota

Q: Is it very 101 simple accumulation area ?
A: If you are bullish & If you believe this wave 2 corrective counter trend then >$7 is an accumulation area no questions asked. Risk is by breaking <$7.

- Our counts are all now over there is nothing to add here except if we go lower for W5 (-11%) is real "Risk" down.

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Up dating our D.Cross on 195M (1/2 Day).

- In the past 6 signals we had (-10%) - (-77%) corrections, pullback & crashes. Manage your risk.

Visually translated on the chart below !!!

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Look up for a visual perspective, with a minimum of (-10%) of we rhythm. Or this time it's different !!!

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The Blue line on the chart could be the final trough we have for W5 of C of ABC, or
we could get another final leg down for that. Either way if you are bullish this it !
- If you are bearish you have your D.Cross on 195M chart which suggest a volital move between (-10%) - (-77%).
- If we are going lower this is W4 of C (complex) as shown on the chart !

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The best D.cross we have had, if and only if we rhythm with the past, would be something like this on the chart +10% then down (-20%)

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We have exceeded our normal retracement's % in this wave down. Now we are approaching the ideal 38% & i have adjusted W5 accordingly that's only and only if you believe that we still have one more leg down . Otherwise we could/might be in W3 already ! Risk down still D.cross on 195M chart !

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Or we get government shut down and things get messier !!!

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Above Blue line W 3 is probably in progress !

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Very rare to have such set up, but it's a probable one out of many
This is only if you are bullish here, then this is for you.

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If you still believe that we still have one more lower low for wave 5 (Final leg down) for the Macro bullish W3 then you need "Motive" wave structure either diagonal or impulsive in the Green circled area !

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- Just to put things in perspective, this up date does not mean or imply anything it just states the facts here. This is by far THE biggest bullish move since IPO after a Death Cross on 1/2 Day (195 Minutes) chart !!!

- The best last one was 10% up then 20% down, the reset were more like crashes. Therefore we have something here we have not seen since the IPO !!! +16.27 !!!

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Weekly Diver is just beautiful for Bulls ;-) W/ lots of Ups/Downs !!!

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Last time we had a similar set up with RSI and MACD we had 31% Bullish move
if we rhythm then 10.47 is the target % wise, if we rhythm MA style +11 is the TGT .

OR we do not and go down !?

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2020

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2023...

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Government shut down scenario ! Against seasonality and production numbers for Q3! But who knows !!!

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Seasonality:
Bullish: +4 / +134 / +34%
Bearish: (-6)-& (-46%)

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What does it mean if we break below $7:
1/ This whole beautiful ABC corrective moves is wrong !
2/ We will be forming 5 impulsive waves down (Orang)
3/ We are in Wave 4 of that 5 Waves impulsive down.!
5/ Minimum for wave 5 is 2ish area with in 5 Months period-2 Months period .!
6/ We will have a complex wave 4 ( which we are forming right now)
7/ If so, then this whole move from ATH is Just one leg, A leg, of ABC corrective move= We will come to these lows and probably break them if no "Truncation" .!

- Is this a probable, yes it is. Is it likely to happen yes if and only if we break below $7. Otherwise a trough is in already in my preferred count, or about to happen just in case we go back again for a big bear trap .!

* Looks like we have motive going up, we need more time to develop further structure. !

* Technailly, RSI + MACD, we have a trough in place already .!

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If we are going up, then this candle should close as such on the chart to have an Bullish Engulfing pattern.!

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Look up for same TGT Up ( Counting # 11)

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One probable count, out of many.

Invalidation is close by for counts out there !

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2ed Count out of many out there .!

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Our chart's playground need some "Cleaning" ;-)

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NIO Has exceeded our both Green box for W4 going up & has exceeded our Red box for going down W4. Both Macro & Micro waves have 30-38 retracements %, both have been exceeded = Very easily to move price for NIO + Very volatile stock to trade !!

Nota

Our invalidation is very close (8.45) + It's very very rare for wave 4 to retrace wave 3 by 50% or more !!! Not a good sign usually !!! But probable + acceptable !!!

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We have completed ABC corrective counter trend move, breaking below green line = we are having impulsive instead of Ziggy ABC corrective counter trend move = down we go further !

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We are way over extended for a W4 here guys, watch this move closely ! More than 50% already

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Only if you are bearish, End of Wave 5 "Very Very Very " close to $7 our invalidation !

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Close to invalidate our minor impulsive up !

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Text book 5 waves impulsive thus far, could be forced/twisted ( Bias) to be an ABC but less likely !

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Looks like we are down form waves 1+2 = Wave 3 should this count be right will go down fast and probably gaps down tomorrow !

*** Counting on small time frames are very dangerous !!!

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I pray this thing really works out. Bigger picture here on 1H chart looks like a perfect, if it plays out this way, 5 waves down !

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Out Impulsive up is still "On" less probable though. We could get a diagonal !! And go up with out breaking our last low !

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2 Options going down:
1/ Diagonal, and form looking at the ABC in Green it's very shallow = less probable
2/ Impulsive = TGTs on chart for w3 = 1.26-1.62 of w1

Nota

" By October 5th this count should/could be over or even way before !!! "

- By 3:15 this afternoon equality of time between W1 & W5 would be met ! That's
for the bearish case = we should have our lower low with in the next trading hour or so to meet time equality. ( Bearish case)
- Next time tgt is 1.26 which would put our lower low (if we are going down)
for w5 tomorrow at 13:55 PM !

*** We are still in bullish move, which is getting really tight here, we have not invalidated our wave 1 overlapping with wave 4 !

Nota

Alternative bullish count, probable even if we break below Green line !!!
wave 2 (388) bar vs wave 1 (312) not following guidance/rules of Elliott wave
Wave 1 should be bigger time wise = This is less probable scenario to have. Just needed to be eliminated from our many probable up/down counts out there !

- Taking our second bottomed on the 26th is even worse, less day 235 days compared to this last move down 388 bars !

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Going on the bigger scale count, this is also much time wise bigger than W2 if you are still bearish.

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Even getting closer to wave 3 time wise !!!

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2845 ETF for Chinses EVs is probably the key for NIO Inc ! Their divers and rhythming is quite interesting. The ETF is not bottoming soon sadly to our bullish count and seasonality. It's TGT is 60 !

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NIO Inc has not broken it's last low of $7, but the ETF did break down resulting in a divergence. If this divergence plays out we will get a nice bullish move supported by seasonality ! Data for these divers are small + ETF does not have NIO Inc as holding stocks of it's profile yet something to consider !

* I have counted 6 divers on the chart 3 NIO is leading &3 ETF is leading "Sadly" to our bullish count most were negative divers.

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The ETF has passed Fibs extensions .6 + .78 , next is Equality C=A at such !

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The confluence between WXY and ABC of Y is $62-$65

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Looks like we will have a bounce move here for W3 of W3.

- This analysis is the best to my ability, i might be wrong/right make sure you do you own analysis to come to your own conclusions.

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Back to our NIO Inc ADR NYSE:

We were just couple of "Cents' away from invalidating our impulsive move "Green Circle" :

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Analyzing 9866 HKI ( NIO Inc @ Honk Kong )

1/ We have completed C= 50% of A W/ 5 waves probably in place( Not sure about that)

2/ Does not have the right look for an A=C structure !

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3/ Last move of our last low $7 (NYSE ADR) Does not look like impulsive up. Could be

diagonal !!! Too many gaps here and there !!!

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Compare NIO at HKI ( 2 Charts above), with this NYSE ( Down here) same TF !!!

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NIO Inc NYSE ADR has invalidated impulsive up !

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Another incoming impulsive down from our last high !

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Equality of 2 Impulsive down is at 8.10 !!!

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Up dating #2 Bullish count !!!

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This count is less likely to be an impulsive up, due to the fact that wave 2 is taking more time than wave 1. 52 bars W1 VS 79 bars W2, therefore the only hope for bulls from here on is probably a diagonal of some sort. Otherwise we will go down closer to $7 if not lower and invalidate the whole Macro count !!!

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Since 2ed of October, we are down (-9%) favoring bearish seasonality here thus far.

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Seasonality for October: (Look up idea dated 10.2.2023)
Bullish: +4 / +134 / +34%
Bearish: (-6) & (-46%)

- We have achieved the minimum of (-6%) .!

Nota

If we are still in bearish mode and going down for a 5th wave, then the equality of time has passed already. We have also passed 1.62 time wise for a touch down, and working on the third probability of 2.61 W5 relative to W1 time wise which is going to be this coming Friday 13th of October.!

W5 =w1 (Passed)
W5=1.62 w1 (Passed)
W5=2.61 ( October 13)

Nota

We look like that we are about to have 5 waves down (HK listing is down) if we rhythm then this down move is not finish yet. !
Equality is just 10 Cents away ( if this is still corrective counter trend move) otherwise we could break our last low for 5th of 5th.

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********* It is very challenging to count these moves, would be happy to have your inputs here guys.!

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Now we know why NIO is going down, a catastrophic car insurance registration for the 1st week of October 1300 cars !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

-Just to put things in perspective " 15,641 vehicles in September & 19,329 in August "

*** If we continue this path next week = October could be the worst of the year in terms of production/sales with 5000ish cars !

*** Our bullish case scenario is based on "Low sales/production" is behind us after Q3 high delivery #s .!

-Comparing the 2 listings below, HKI will probably break down. NYSE ADR might/might not follow due to different wave structures. !

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Bigger picture for NIO HKI listing :

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Going back to our basic 101 TA: (Checked on google if NIO were working on the chinses holiday or no, no results)

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RSI + William % + MFI are all having nice diver with price = A bullish move is suppose to happen soon ! Why the delay !? MACD is curling up nicely as well, no diver here.!

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Weekly divers are "ON" as well .!

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Monthly looking sharp as well.!

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1H channel ,just random 3 points.! Nothing in particular here.!

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101 Resistances & supports.!

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Volume shelves are the scariest thing thus far for NIO.!

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2ed scariest thing from our analysis is these SMAs.!

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3 Divers on these keep going up further = More bullish case.!

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The "Mother" of all bullish trend lines is this line, since IPO. !

1/ October it set at 7.51
2/November it sets at 7.61

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Shine like a diamond ;-) .!
Beautiful 5 waves, lets hope bulls take the initiative from here and we go up. !

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1/ Unfair trades here, "Traders" in HKI gaped up NIO 7.43% .!!!

2/Unfair trades here, "Traders" in NYSE gaped up NIO ADR ONLY 4% .!!! Come on Bullish guys, you can do better :-)

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We need to get out "Break out" of these 2 lines to have bullish momentum !!!

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Bearish guys, would love this to be " Running Flat" !!!
*** Invalidation is by having higher highs

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9866 HKI listings down (-5%)
Loades of ABCs.!

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Adr NYSE:
Similar set ups with in the last 2 years...Is it different this time around, or we rhythm with the close past...

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We are looking for a final 5th wave down here.!

Bigger picture, a good one here is that we are still holding above 3 supporting lines.!

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Big brother on the left side, little brother on the right side.! Or not and we break down.!

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Still respecting all trend lines.!

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15 Minutes chart.!

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According to this indicator on Tradingview: (All else absolute)

1/ 18% bullish move in the next 20 Days = 10ish by the end of October.!
2/ By December we could/might take out our last high at $16 = we could/might see mid 20ish with in 60 Days.!

Nota

2 Support lines were broken "Inter-Day" thus far we need to go back. If you believe that we still do not have our 5th wave in place (Look up previous updates) then this is you chance to have it.!

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Last chance for Bulls to take over.!

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$7 is the last hope for bulls IMHO.!

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w5 already 2x w1 of W5 of Wave C

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Green line is IPO all time mother of all mothers
line of support "Must" be respected for Bull's sake.!

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7.93 Might hold up for the bullish case, or things could get really missy here.!

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We have already achieved Equality of time and % between waves 1 & 5.!

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Just thinking load out.!

This last 5th wave is over extended...

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I shit you not, today's candle is not looking good at all what so ever.!

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Approaching major support lines, below is not good at all.!

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What if this whole move is an impulsive move as our buddy A10Equity is suggesting ?!
Then we would have an extended wave 1 = wave 3+5 equal in time or %.
1/ Time equality between waves 3+5 with wave 1 being extended is tomorrow. I do not see a probable structure complotted here .! if you can let me know.!
2/ In an extended wave 1 = Length of waves 3+5 relative to wave 1 is between
61-78 ( Red Box)
3/ Equality of waves 3+5 % wise is (Red Line)

Nota

This would/might suggest an ending diagonal here for wave 5.! Or not and this analysis is wrong.! (Something to this effect)

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Mean while in HKI NIO is down 5% .!

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Some RSI'S set ups here, dunnoo if these will ever remotely be probable or not.
We have 2 Bearish scenarios here: ( 195 Minutes analysis)
#1: We go directly to 5.79 as a final trough then up big time.!
#2: Longer move with ups and downs. We touch 7, then 8.50, then final trough around $4.!
- I am in NIO long term, so i hope these, RSI bearish, set ups are wrong.!

Nota

The first RSI set up (#1) is compatible with our extended wave 1 with 3+5 equal in length.! Whether it works or not we shall see here how it look on the chart.!

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IPO Support line has been broken.!

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If , and only if, we have bottomed today (Temp bottom) then look up for boxes up.!

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Nio needs to go up the line before October's end.!

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RSI Study.!

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On daily getting close to finish this move on final leg, different than smaller time frames.!

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Dates for w5 and the bounce back up. One probability out of many.!

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If we do break below our $7, invalidation of our count, then we are looking at the alternative which is not that good from an Elliott wave perspective.

Facts Fibs wave C to wave A :

1/ We have touched wave C= .236 of wave A
2/ Next Fib is .382 @ $2.32 that's like IPO drama .!!!
3/ We can not touch Fib .50 because it's below zero ( Minus territory)

Facts Fibs time wise wave C to wave A:

1/ We have passed .61 time relation between C to A
2/ Next fib is equality of time between wave A to wave C (11.27.2023) Probable but would involve more time more complex waves .! But non the less is acceptable.!

Nota

2ed Alternative to our main count, by breaking below $7, is that all this move is just A of ABC Grand Cycle move as such.! ( Hard to tell right now)

Nota

Three different Elliott probabilities here out of many...

1/ Crazy bullish count.!

2/ Our "In Progress" kind of reality count.!

Nota

This one to finish "Macro" wave count from ATH.!

Nota

Good "Siblings" Vs Bad "Siblings"

Good ones...

Band ones...

Nota

If and only if you are bullish, regardless or our RSI'S study which suggest more pain to come , then this could be one out of many Elliott wave counts out there.

- Watching NIO'S move i do not think we will ever go to the Ideal tgt (.61 Fibs) unless
this is some how an ABC corrective counter trend move .!

Nota

One for the bullish guys out there.!
1/Anything with a> (-50%) Drawdown
2/was followed by > 50% Bullish move

*** Past performance is no guarantee of future results***

Nota

Last hope for Bulls is NOT to break below $7 & go ballistic up.!
Invalidation is "Cents" away.!!!!!!!

Nota

Seasonality if it's even remotely applicable.!

-Past (10.18.2023) idea about how it's suppose to work.!

-How it's going in reality ...

Nota

NIO/TSLA, this is :
1/ Small sample only 3 previous bearish set ups.!
2/ We are in the final leg down, we should/could/might bottom soon.
3/ First bearish set up was at "ATH" = Not fare to compare with today non the less is an acceptable technically.!
4/ Second and third bearish set ups are kind of in the middle as well = we are at the end part here.!
5/ November should have being one of the best months for seasonality.! Nothing here to register as bullish move.! we still got 20 calendar days to see what is going to happen. we just finished 5 moves up and sadly broken last low.! = more pain for bulls.
6/ Fractal TGTS were and still are part of our "Probability's Game" ( Check previous ideas up and reposted below)

----------
- This previous idea is the best fractal we have thus far, and it's just scary to say the least for the Bulls.!

- These previous ideas are the best Elliott wave counts that are rhythming with our RSI studies we have thus far, and it's just scary to say the least.

- This previous idea is also one of the best fractals we have thus far, and it's just scary to say the least .Volume vacuum suggested back then that $4 is next.!

*** I am running out of all Bullish set ups here, except seasonality(Bulls are not showing up thus far in the best month of the year) and this % down VS % up set up.! which is not as valid as a TA supporting point, more as an observation.!

Nota

This is the NIO/TSLA chart.! Mid December to Mid January is our projected trough.!

Nota

How many trading days have we stayed below the "Death Cross" of NIO ? Well the present is still the least amount of days since the IPO !!!

129
93
88
84
70
64
62
47 Present !!!

Nota

The above is the worst part, the good part for bulls is this next idea which suggest that we will have a big run. The question is when it's going to happen and where?
106 = 107% Bullish move
76 = 131% Bullish move
56 = 70% Bullish move
54 = 67% Bullish move
51 = 79 % Bullish move
***47*** Present
44 = 30% Bullish move
26 +300%
10 +300%

Nota

This is as bearish as it gets, extremes reading for W% .! Only seen during the first stage after the IPO.! This would be just a one big Bear's winter feast.! Will it play out of no ? Time will tell.!

Nota

Every time i try analyzing NIO the 2019 "Time frame" shows up in every indicator out there i have used thus far. Would be insane to compare them together financially and structurally (Elliot wave wise) but technically as you i have analyzed is keep giving me more signals that it is the same bearish set up .!!!!!!!!!

Nota

Today's lower low kind of changed every thing here for our analysis for the bull's case.! Non the less we are still above $7 .!

Nota

At HKEX (Close right now, shall be open before upper idea materialized) on the other hand did not have lower low (Even though we broke $7) an ABC MACRO count would be THE "Dream" for bulls at this stage of NIO's bearish trends set ups.!

Nota

All else absolute, weekly bullish set up.! We might/could be in the the final leg here according to these Elliott counts. The all happen at different levels .!

Nota

Zooming in on 195 Minutes chart, to analyze our previous idea, one these bullish set ups if it's even remotely probable. suggest that we are more correlating with our last one NOT the rest on the chart.!

Nota

Trying to apply the weekly signals , previous idea up, to the daily (Time +Price) and we end up with 2019 fractal once again.! The question is it fare to compare these tow "Eras" together financially, or technical analysis will run the show.!

Nota

One for the Bulls ;-), finally we are getting somewhere.!
We are standing at 60 we need 10 more dates, will we go that far or no ? our wave structure is completed/about to . Look at the fractals here.! 2019 Keeps popping up again and again.! Plus we have March 2022.!

Nota

Comparing TSLA with NIO, 101 "Overlaying each other". In the case that TSLA leads (&not lagging) we have had (-20%) -(-8%) with in 4 trading days up to 25 trading days we are 9 trading days with TSLA leading as of today. The question is TSLA going to go continue up if so then we forming a trough right this very moment on NIO.!

Nota

Appling the above to a chart...

Nota

Pictures in the cloud

Nota

This could be it or we have another lower low tomorrow.!

Nota

Twin...Or pictures in the clouds...

Nota

We have one leg in trough lands (50% Confirmation)

This structure looks not good for a bottom.! Not clear to me to say the least.! We have 2 sets of 5 waves. Even the last low is .23 Fib of W1 !!!

Nota

Using lowest price ever, September 2019, as ground "Zero" for our 18 Months, 40 weeks and 20 weeks cycles.

Nota

March - May 2024 is a "Major" trough lands.! If applicable.!

Nota

1/ 20 Weeks(Yellow) , 6 Xs VS 4 Checks = 60% Bearish move Vs 40% bullish move = Bad cycle "Signal"
2/ 40 Weeks (Blue), 1.5 Xz VS 3.5 Checks= 3.5 = 42% Bearish move Vs 58 % bullish move = Weak cycle "Signal"
3/18 Month (Green), is an early trough signal.! 5-7 Weeks before a major trough followed by 60%-80% Bullish

Nota

- Back in September, D. Cross on 195 Minutes chart has achieved it's best ever draw down + (-2%) = We have achieved the minimum from a historical point of view + (-2%)

- Back in September, goals have been achieved and more for a 5th wave of W 5...

We should have bottomed already... Or we go like 2019 style "RSI" and crash (-50%).!

Nota

Back in September we wrote that seasonality till the end of October as such, we have achieved that and more... We are in November we should have already gone up big time...!!!???

Nota

**********RISK DOWN IS 2019*********

Nota

Our best bullish case scenario is May-June trough our worst scenario is 2019 .!

Nota

From an Elliott wave structure perspective "All else absolute", a flavor for everyone.!
We have 3 probable wave counts here...Choose your favorite color :-)

Nota

The Red count has met the "Minimum" an acceptable out come i would say.! Going further to equality of golden ration .61 = Minus !!!

The orange count has met the "Minimum" an acceptable out come i would say.! Going further to equality of golden ratio .61 = Minus !!!

The Green count has met the " Equality of w1 =w5 " of W5 of WC. Moreover has met the .76% nice fibs for Wave 1 to wave 5 of Wave .!

Nota

All the above is very bullish for NIO, on the other hand we have this massive bearish set up technically "All else absolute" .! We could go as far as $ 1.77.!!!!!!!!

This is a ridicules out come for this technical bearish set up things are different
right now financially even if technically it's a probability we should use the best
of our judgments to evaluate the situation.! Unless there are things that we are not aware of in china that is about to be unleashed.!!!!

Nota

ADR'S highest 3 readings .! Fist 2 were after a clear ABC, last one this week is ?! If we do no break < $7 then after few weeks from now we would confirm, would be too late, that we had an ABC.!

Nota

Would be something like this, too good to be true.! :-)

Nota

All else absolute...

A vortex indicator (VI) is an indicator composed of two lines - an uptrend line (VI+) and a downtrend line (VI-). These lines are typically colored green and red respectively. A vortex indicator is used to spot trend reversals and confirm current trends.

Nota

The funny thing here is that 2019 "Fractal" is popping up again and again :-)

Nota

There were another 6 signals as well, with a 30% bullish move as the least one !!!

Nota

$9.57-$30 If it's even remotely applicable "All else absolute"

Nota

Weekly "Area" Vs "Candles" looks like a 5 waves down.! or we rhythm with 2019 and we crash big time to 2ish area.!!!!

Nota

Or ABC...

Nota

The resemblance is astonishing to say the least, only missing wave 5 down.! Or we have our 5th down and we go ballistic up.!
Weekly...

Daily...is a different structure that suggests down we go...
Daily...

Nota

If we rhythm with weekly, not daily, using same lines between 2019 and 2023 it would imply/suggest that we need one final leg down.! Daily suggest that we are still in wave one of 5 down.! ( 3 legs to do down= 2ish)

- All else absolute, one probability out of many out there...

Nota

5.36 is an "ideal " target for wave # 5 .! Or not and this analysis is wrong.!

Nota

This...

Or this...

Nota

What happen after 4 Months of Monthly Red candles, all else absolute, if applicable ?

67% Bullish move in 2 Months
-44% Bearish move in 2 Months
42% Bullish move in 2 Months
56% Bullish move in 1 Month

Nota

We stand as of today 64 days under this D.Cross.! 3ed longest thus far, on 11.10.2023 we were standing on 47 Days.!

Nota

On November 10th, 2023 we were standing on 60 days < 50D SMA, as of today we are @ 74 Days < 50 Days SMA.!

Nota

The more we stay below it, the less probability of bullish move it becomes !

Nota

MFI Fractal, we should have had our trough already according to MFI.! We could break down or break out big time soon.!

Nota

Monthly Vortex is suggesting a 28% "Risk" down for the month of December.!

While daily is suggesting something else with it's 2ed lowest reading since IPO.! Who is telling the truth...Daily or Monthly...

Nota

My bad, i meant "Weekly " as in the 2ed chart above.!

Nota

Vortex's fractals out of the above is as such on the chart & are are 4 Candles already with no big draw down!!! We should have had at least 13%-30% correction .!

Nota

RSI + B% of the VI is suggesting as well a ( -14%) -(-30%) correction with in 2 candles of the signals. We are already 4-5 of those signals and no correction thus far.!

Nota

All else absolute, if applicable, Bears are in total control of NIO according to the Vortex Indicator with VI - in Red is on top. The good thing is that it has registered the 2ed highest "Bear in control" level since the IPO = Trough in close by.!

(VI -) On Top = Bears in control BUT BUT no clear signal that i can see here.!

Nota

All the Bears " In control" of the trend, Red line on top Max drawdown.!
-22%
-33%
-60%
-20%
-18%
-36%
-22%
-60%
-62%

Nota

Present is (-22%) 5th best drawdowns .!

Nota

NIO'S next move is massive to say the least if applicable & all else absolute = (-46%) down or +33% up to +4000%

Nota

Volume's 5 Day SMA.! Which way it's going to be (Weekly)

Nota

William % Adjusted to 120 Days, if applicable and all else absolute.!

1/ Since ATH (-7%)-(-29%)

2/ During 2019 Crash (-6%)-(-41%) Drawdown & lonely +9% bullish move.!

Nota

Back in September... we wrote... & still standing as a bullish move for W3 up big time.!

Back in September and still standing we could start wave 3 up big time...

This is bullish as well...

Nota

Bullish case still standing...

Nota

Updating Tsla leading... past idea...Achieved -17% the past Max was -20% !

Present...

Nota

VI + 's William % weekly, Adjusted to 5 shows more "Cliffs" than "Bottoms"...

***If applicable + All else absolute *****

Nota

Elliott counts, one probability out of many, if applicable, all else absolute.! Or this is wrong and up we go ballistic in W3 Grand.!

Nota

Updating our 2019 wave count "Fractal" we are hesitant to go sharply down like 2019. We should have gone down big time just like on the chart, rather we are going diagonal/sideways !

Nota

Bull's best ever dream for NIO as an ending diagonal for a final 5th wave, if applicable and all else absolute.!

Nota

One probability out there is and expanded flat for wave 2 then down.! if applicable and all else absolute.!

Nota

All else absolute, if applicable we could/might have our 3ed wave down in already if so and we rhythm with 2019 we are as such on the chart below with an Expanded flat W4 in progress just like above chart. Or not and this analysis is wrong.!

Nota

Pictures in the cloud...

Nota

2 Sets of 5 waves down is confirmed here which is which and what's next ?

Nota

Weekly Volume's 5Ds SMA is suggesting that these are related somehow.!

Nota

One probability out of many....

Nota

One probability out of many...

Nota

Updating past idea...

Probable, but diminishing with time cent away for invalidation "Bull's best ever dream"

Nota

Zoon in for this crazy/insane probability...

1/w3 stands @ 7.02
2/ w5 should break < @ 7.02
and stay above $7
- We have 2 Cents for a maneuver for a trough for w5 of WC of ABC corrective counter trend.!

Nota

The real question is is the a leading diagonal of some sort or an ending diagonal of some sort ? Either way the bullish target for this diagonal has been met .!

Nota

Or an expanding Flat look up 11.30.2023 .!

Nota

NIO overlaying china's EV ETF, trough lands if applicable all else absolute.! The question are we going a bit down or this is it.!

Nota

Updating a previous idea, only if applicable and all else absolute.!

- Are we going to rhythm or not, time to reveal that.!

Nota

Updating a previous idea, only if applicable and all else absolute.!

- Are we going to rhythm or not, time to reveal that.!

Nota

Updating a previous idea, only if applicable and all else absolute.!

- Only B% is showing a correction risk !!! The risk down is (-28%) =5.12 !!!
- Bullish move identical to the RSI ( Look up)

- Are we going to rhythm or not, time to reveal that.!

Nota

No one knows whether a stocks goes up or down, we only seek to understand the moves by applying "Technical analysis" to the best of our ability we might get it right or wrong.! Stocks may rhythm or not is not up to us !!!

Nota

HKIN & NIO.! Risk down is that this so called "Fractal" is basically wrong.! NIO has less correlation in this particular case only.!

- All else absolute & only if applicable .!

14%-46%

Nota

NIO has achieved 2 of the targets already, can it go to the third.!

Nota

RSI'S Resistance weekly & daily.!

Nota

Just daily.!

Nota

NIO'S RSI structure's Fractal, if probable, if applicable with all things else out there internally/externally absolute.!

Nota

Since the IPO Anchored Volume Profile.!

$6.69-$9.40, is were most traded range .!

Nota

One hell of a big drop yesterday !!! Could if be, the probability, ABC Flat we mentioned earlier =2019 Fractals or no !? Only way to confirm that is by breaking below $7.

Now we go to Vortex Indicator, daily instead of our past weekly idea. VI+ 's RSI probability is not strong but something to consider here.
----------------
40% We are half way through a bullish move.
60% This is a top: a/33% A top in a bullish move
b/ 66% Major top then major LL

-In a nutshell 40% lower low incoming a major one & 60% minor low in bullish move .!

- 2019's Fractal is still probable here, or this big drop is "Algo's bear trap".1

- Blue lines are highest RSI readings for VI+'s RSI ...

Nota

Using VI+'S MACD with 15 signals since the IPO. So the above was the RSI & this below is the MACD. (Highest print for MACD since IPO):

1/66% We are half way through a bullish move with a a top right now which has the range of (-7%) -(-22%) = breaking $7 = we are not in wave 2 impulsive up.!

2/ 33% This is a major top: Range between (-45%) (-70%) (2019 Fractal again). This is hard to digest right now since more probabilities are suggesting a bullish move ( On a Weekly & Monthly charts). Non the less this is one bearish probability that we need to keep in mind.

Nota

B% for VI+ has :

1/ 42% Probability this is a major "Top". The funny thing here is 2019 keeps popping up again and the other thing is that all these high reading for B% happened at a final 5th wave all 3 of them !!!
2/ 58 % We go up with a range between +7 up to +167 !!!

Nota

For the bearish guys out there, if applicable, if probable and all else absolute.

- Updating past idea, after yesterday's big drop just in case this thing plays out.!

- We need to break down below $7 for this to play out. Just to be clear i have my long positions down big time.!

Nota

Weekly looks good, but not good to be used as an enter/exit point for trading .!

Nota

NYSE ADR

HKIN

Nota

Bullish guys out there, if applicable, if probable & all else absolute.!

- Fractal of last move.!

Nota

-SSE Composite's RSI oversold territory has a supporting base for NIO. 4 Bullish for NIO we are entering an "Oversold" territory" all Red line .!

Nota

Updating last one, with % gain/lose for NIO since IPO.!

-4 out of 5 are bullish, only one we crashed big time then went back up April 22

- 2018 same level, close timing but big diver which we do not have right now.!

Nota

- Ever probable, applicable & else absolute.!

1/ Unless WW 3 starts, we start 1929 recession, geopolitical issues arise and we totally stop rhythming with the past + 40 years or so of historic data since 1992-2023 we are having a major trough a "Generational" one.

2/ With a risk down of (-3%)-(-7%) from this week till April of 2024 .!

3/ I am using SPX/SSEC'S MACD highest reading, represented here with Blue lines.!

4/ 8 signals out there since 1992 .!

5/ The move is between +39% up to +300% with in 15 weeks or 129 Days.!

6/ We should have a major trough with in 15 weeks or 129 Days.

7/ This signal only happens roughly every 5 years or so!

8/ 2024-2025 is an interesting 2 years for the
SSE Composite.

9/Or this is irrelevant & this whole idea is simply wrong!

Nota

Updating previous idea, Golden Cross on 195 Minutes ( Half day) since IPO & comparing it with 130 Minutes chart:

- 7 Golden Crosses:
a/86% We go up between +14% up to +140%
b/ 14% We go down (-68%)
c/ Chances, if we rhythm with 130 Minutes charts, is 100% from 1.2.2024 -1.11.2024 !!! Too good to be true right, well we shall say in 3 weeks time.

----Data 195 ----
+40%
+140%
+1628
+13% then (-39%)
+15% then (-72%)
(-68%)
+64%
-------Data 130----
8 Golden crosses, 1 more here.! (Not including present one)

+ 10% (-15%) +43%
(-6%) then +167%
(-13%) then +1900%
+30% then (-39%)
+8% then (-72%)
+17% then (-68%)
+13% NOT rhythming
+88%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I am going to share this live with you guys so you can see back to the IPO
(Testing 123)

tradingview.com/chart/bJls4YPc/

Nota

Incase the link does not work, this is it.!
On 130 Minutes 2 out of 8 were negative between (-13%)- (-6%) that is 75% we go up from here.

Data:
+ 10% (-15%) +43%
(-6%) then +167%
(-13%) then +1900%
+30% then (-39%)
+8% then (-72%)
+17% then (-68%)
+13% NOT rhythming
+88%

Nota

Crossing and holding the 200 Days SMA has the probability since the IPO :

1/ 66% Probability for a bullish move +79% / +2200%/ +38% /+57%
2/ 33% Probability for a bearish move (-28%) - (-73%)

- Blue line is the SMA

Nota

Higher highs on both RSI + Price usually very good confirming up trend.! Canceling the ADR @ NYSE which is having a negative diver .!

Nota

Golden cross is happing today at HKIN'S NIO.! Small sample only 3 previous signals, but it leads by 7-8 Days confirming our 2-11 of January, 2024 as this bullish move continue up.!

- 66% Probability for a bullish move +79% / +2200%/ +38% /+57%

Nota

33% Probability for a bearish move (-28%) - (-73%)

Nota

Nothing to say, but may God have mercy on us long guys here.!

Low readings on 195M "Half day" chart probabilities.! RSI Printing 20 .!

Nota

1 Hour RSI @ 7, lowest ever since IPO, with the 2ed in September 2019 .!

Nota

2019 from $1 to $5 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Nota

Will it happen again ????????????????? from $6 to $30 ?????????????

Nota

RSI of RSI Divergence if it's even remotely applicable

Nota

Past idea

How it's going on in reality, but surprisingly still holding this diver .!

Nota

Price at the time of the idea was 6.32, today 6.14 = change the upper target by lowering it .18 Cent.! $ 10.97- $7.81

Nota

8 Days later... Still holding by a thread .!

Nota

Price at the time of the idea was $6.32, lowest $5.80 ! Target will be lowered if applicable, probable and all else absolute.

Nota

Above is weekly, this is 195M (1/2) Day chart.!
We have had only 3 other occasions when we had a 17.27 RSI readings or lower. All is post the IPO = Our move is kind of rhythming with that or not and we go down further.!

Nota

- Both were followed by +70% & +300%.

-The problem of these TA studies is that NIO keeps defying them and invalidating them .! Non the less i will keep pounding the door till we get a clear answer here, i am already big down but will keep posting to you guys.

Nota

#1 ( When we had a major trough in +40% twice 2019+2021)
What does is mean for NIO to prints such a low RSI'S readings on a 1 hour chart ?
Well our current status is as follow we have had such low readings with a major trough in:

A. Daily :
Higher than March 21 was @ 26
Higher than September 19 was @ 17

B. Weekly:
Weekly is lower than March 21 was @ 46
Weekly is higher than September 19 was @ 27

*** Three of the RSI'S reading are still higher than previous troughs of 2019+2021.!

Nota

Continuing our previous analysis...

2021 We had (-21%) Present we have (-19%).
2021 We had 12 on RSI in 7 Days we got a trough, we have 6 RSI at present in 17 Days.
Is this is for us long guys or not and more pain to come ?

* If we are about to rhythm with 2021 this week is our trough .! or we go to the next signal (Next idea)

Nota

Continuing our previous analysis...

2019 We had (-39%) Present we have (-19%).
2019 We had 7.70 on RSI in 7 Days we got a trough, we have 6 RSI at present in 17 Days.

Is this for us long guys or not and more pain to come ?

* If we are about to rhythm with 2019 we still got another 19% drawdown but
it's taking almost triple the time to do so.!

* So hard to guess the trough's week

- Or we go to the next signal (Next idea)

Nota

Continuing our previous analysis...

April 2019 We had (-52%) Present we have (-19%).
April 2019 We had 12 on RSI in 70 Days we got a trough, we have 6 RSI at present in 17 Days.

Is this for us long guys or not and more pain to come ?

* If we are about to rhythm with April 2019 we still got another -33% drawdown and this is the worst ever scenario for us long guys here.!

* So March 26th would be our projected trough's week

- No more signals for such low readings ( Total 3 scenarios)

Nota

More resemblance with 2019 than any other signal out there.!

Nota

Updating... weekly...

- Just a reminder that NIO is not a "Holding" of this ETF.!
- If NIO correlate with this 50% success rate then we might see $10-$7.50 by May 13th 2024.!

Nota

Trying to find any bullishness out there, 2019 Fractal...

Nota

samitrading

I do more in depth studies of stocks on my twitter account. Hope you would enjoy it there as you are enjoying it here.

****** Past performance is no guarantee of future results***

twitter.com/samitrading1

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