Countdown to results of general elections
Atualizado
With increasing odds of a stable and NDA government, markets are cautiously inching upwards. A few patterns are forming in preparation of the results declaration on 23rd May, and exit polls on 19th May. Considering that dust will settle by 31st May (unless there is a hung parliament), I provide following targets and supports on Nifty50.
1) Three year long support line at 10700 is unlikely to be broken, unless there is a hung parliament.
2) Intermediate supports at 11,000 and 11,750 may get tested in the interim, when there is uncertainty about the big 272 mark.
3) 12,216 is the support on the Pulwama rally (February onwards).
4) 12,300-400 is the conservative target based on three year long channel.
5) 12,700 is the next target based on three year old channel.
About 5-8% return opportunity for bullish position, and 10-12% on bearish. For every 100 rupees available for investment in Nifty; I would hold 25 rupees in cash and 75 rupees as index before the results. Then I would place sell orders at 12,300-12,700 and buy order at 10,700. The positions could be closed out by mid-June.
1) Three year long support line at 10700 is unlikely to be broken, unless there is a hung parliament.
2) Intermediate supports at 11,000 and 11,750 may get tested in the interim, when there is uncertainty about the big 272 mark.
3) 12,216 is the support on the Pulwama rally (February onwards).
4) 12,300-400 is the conservative target based on three year long channel.
5) 12,700 is the next target based on three year old channel.
About 5-8% return opportunity for bullish position, and 10-12% on bearish. For every 100 rupees available for investment in Nifty; I would hold 25 rupees in cash and 75 rupees as index before the results. Then I would place sell orders at 12,300-12,700 and buy order at 10,700. The positions could be closed out by mid-June.
Nota
11,750 got breached and a 450 point downfall ensued. Possible fall to 11,000 and 10,700 before bouncing back.Trade fechado manualmente
Nifty did not achieve 12,216 / 12,300; just as it fell shy of 11,000 / 10,700. However, a 1000 point (10%) returns opportunity over 30 days was worth a bet.
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