Tech 2x leverage ETF's // mull, tsmu mstu

15 de nov.

I recently purchased mstu and even more recently looked at their chart😊. Their first candle on Wed the 18th to todays close is just proud of 400%. I am currently down about 4%. MSTR chart from Oct 18 to close today is roughly 150%. So…

The ETF accelerated faster than a 2x pace for the first month. I understand MSTR is super popular right now and that that likely helped the etf, however, it got me to thinking. Are leveraged ETFs in general accelerating faster than the underlying consistently upon launch? Well the answer is no.

I looked at recent 2x launches going back to the low in early August and mstu is an outlier.

I did see crwl for CRWD and tsmu for TSM. They were introduced this week. On our Remembrance Day in fact. Respect to US Veterans Day.

Both underlying stocks are solid in my opinion. Especially so in the seasonal broad race to the New Year. The chart I chose to show was MU…mainly because of the range its been playing in. I think it’s consolidating in the warmth of the March gap and going to break to the up side. US government has announced that $39 Billion will be released through the chips act and both TSM // MU will be recipients. BOOST!

To whomever is trading for the MSTU company; Well done team...genuinely, well done. Congrats on the listing. Blunt question for you; is the accelerated growth beyond a 2x result in this first month solely on your trades or are you using VC dollars to create a curve? I hope it’s the former…and I wish you all the best.

P.S.A to anyone looking at mstr call options…the IV is ±130% last time I looked for anything in Q1 of 2025. Brutal. You might as well by spot. Don’t get burned.
Take care,
MR

20 de nov.

Trade ativo

First off…lol, I was factually wrong on whether to take on MSTR call options last week despite them being ±130% implied volatility! They would have printed from last Fri to now. I do maintain that I will stay away from those options as they are too pricey for my taste. My mstu play that I reported was down 4% last Friday is now up 60% from my average and I am more than happy to hold it vs options….happy days. The outperformance of mstu’s 2x ETF vs MSTR is still a thing (although less so now) as MSTR is up 26%ish since Friday’s close to today’s close and mstu is up 56% in the same timeframe. Again, congrats to the MSTU covered call trading Team on the outsized trading success! Thank you and well done.

TSM vs tsmu; since tsmu opened their ticker Nov 12th to today’s close they are down 2.5%ish (all my %’s are ish btw). TSM proper is down 2% in the same timeframe. My buys on Thurs the 14th are in the black 1% on the candle close today (Tues the 19th).

MU vs mull; since mull opened their ticker Nov 12th to today’s close they are down 12.5%. MU proper is down 7% in the same timeframe. My buys on Thurs the 14th are in the red 3.5% on the candle close today.

So…for some reason the mull 2x Team took more of a tumble (although, to be fair, not more than 2x) to the downside since inception compared to the tsmu Team. Thankfully the recovery in the very early stages seems to be on par between the two…both are up roughly the expected 2x from their underlying in the last couple days. This is very short-term data for sure but nice to see they are doing what they are supposed to now. I will stay in both for the next 3 months.
Happy trading all.
Take care,
MR

16 de dez.

Nota

The leveraged trades with TSMU and MULL have been choppy for sure but I am in the black on both. TSMU seems to be up-ticking a little better than MULL but I think the seasonal rally is about to take over and giveway to the upside for all.

FOMC this week is basically a lock at a 25bps cut according to CME at a 93% probability. Bank of Japan sentiment for a 25bps hike remains on the table for the 19th but I have to assume that has been at least mostly baked in to skirt another carry trade unwind surprise.

MSTR is now confirmed in the NAS/QQQ, so despite me throwing more $ at MSTU at a less than ideal entry a month ago I am looking forward to the next 2 months.

These leveraged plays though need to be watched closely. Once the market sentiment changes the leveraged positions will of course turn on us like a rabid dog. I still plan to be out of all of them mid Q1 2025, regardless if the markets are still pumping. I will still hold the underlying in mstr and possibly hedge in Q2 if necessary.

Happy days,
MR