Road to recovery?
Atualizado
Several good signals from the past 2 months:
Actual legislation being passed on the federal level... signs of price action detachment from broader S&P... greatly increased volume compared to any time during selloff.
My bullish case is that I expect a final 5th wave surge to around 17.50+ followed by a period of consolidation for wave 2 with an eventual parabolic breakout to start wave 3. This will definitely require some legislative catalysts since I expect the broader markets to collapse once it finishes consolidating in a wave B. Probably sometime next spring. A broader market collapse also may not be the worst thing as investors pull their money from traditional safe havens like big tech and go bargain shopping in stuff like emerging markets.
I expect a recovery to trend along that 1/1 green line. I can't say that we're on that path... but do remember that emerging markets tend to bottom first and that a bottoming of the S&P will not necessarily correlate w/ a bottom in cannabis.
I will continue averaging in when value presents itself as I have done all year.
I am long crypto and pot and short the SPX and QQQ.
Actual legislation being passed on the federal level... signs of price action detachment from broader S&P... greatly increased volume compared to any time during selloff.
My bullish case is that I expect a final 5th wave surge to around 17.50+ followed by a period of consolidation for wave 2 with an eventual parabolic breakout to start wave 3. This will definitely require some legislative catalysts since I expect the broader markets to collapse once it finishes consolidating in a wave B. Probably sometime next spring. A broader market collapse also may not be the worst thing as investors pull their money from traditional safe havens like big tech and go bargain shopping in stuff like emerging markets.
I expect a recovery to trend along that 1/1 green line. I can't say that we're on that path... but do remember that emerging markets tend to bottom first and that a bottoming of the S&P will not necessarily correlate w/ a bottom in cannabis.
I will continue averaging in when value presents itself as I have done all year.
I am long crypto and pot and short the SPX and QQQ.
Nota
Signs of clear capitulation means it's time to start getting aggressive. I will be adding with conviction in this area all the way down to $6.50, the 1.427 extension of the prior move up.While some may look at the past several weeks as bearish, to me it's a signal that the long term trend is about to turn. This washout is what many have been looking for (and not getting) in the S&P.
Let's not forget, the democrats now control the Senate and SAFE has never had any issues passing the house.
Aviso legal
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