Nasdaq Composite extreme panic and double bottom

22 de fev. de 2022

Nasdaq Composite is in extreme panic mode right now, the investors seem to have perceived the possible Russia-Ukraine War as an end-of-world scenario. They have clearly forgotten that major wars have mostly been beneficial for American stocks, e.g. how WW2 made DJIA skyrocket. Moreover, the coming rate hike at 16 Mar 2022 will definitely scare a lot of investors into panic selling.

That being said, I still believe IXIC will bounce back from 13000 and form a double bottom for the short term. IXIC will bounce back and test the 0.618 resistance at 15021. After failing to break above 15000, IXIC will jump into panic mode again with the aid of rate hike scare. The bottom will emerge in May or June around 11000. If the panic is extreme enough, IXIC might test the strong support of 10000. I selected 'short' but I would never advise shorting the indexes. Buying the bottom is a much safer and more profitable strategy in the long run.

Due to the excellent fundamentals e.g. lowest Amercan unemployment in decades, this temporary panic is not the end of the long term bullish trend. IXIC will consolidate between 11000 and 16000 this year, then skyrocket again in 2023 and 2024.

17 de mar. de 2022

Nota

Nice double bottom formed at 24 Feb and 8 Mar 2022. You should have bought by now. IXIC will keep going up until investors and speculator start panicking about recession, quantitative tightening, expensive oil, Russian war and any other scary thing again.

I'm fairly sure there will be another big crash in 2022. The timeframe is tricky to say but there might be some correction in May, then a huge panicky collapse in August, September, October or as late as November.

6 de abr. de 2022

Nota

IXIC dropped at 5 April 2022, because investors were worrying about recession, quantitative tightening and rate hike again. IXIC will drop again today as the panic takes time to spread and turn into panic selling.

However, I don't think the Wave C correction will start today. Quantitative tightening, recession worries, Ukraine war and high oil price just caused extreme panic in March, less than one month ago. This traumatic experience has made many investors temporarily immune to the March 2022 level of extreme panic. Therefore they won't sell recklessly in mid April in order to escape the stock market.

My conclusion for now, is IXIC and SPX will mostly go up in April. Then we shall see whether the investors will panic sell or greed buy in May and June.