Having Trouble Picking Winners? Here Is Why: IWM Has Rolling Top
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Part Two. The Rullell-2000-as shown by-IWM. Kind of looks like the-S&P-500, doesn't it? This is an extremely difficult market in which you will find winning stocks . The-Russell-2000 (as measured by-IWM) has gone sideways. You have to be very good to select the end of the draw-down periods and go long in the winners. The rotation into and out of stock groups has been fast and furious. As for-IWM: I detect a bearish AB=CD harmonic pattern . This, combined with very negative indicators, are warning signs of a break to the down side. In all fairness to you, I have been expecting a draw-down for six months, yet we continue to move side-ways. Let's put it this way, your upside gain is 1% to 2%, down-side 10%-15% +. This is not a good risk/ reward ratio. Here are ONE DOZEN negatives I see in-IWM, and why I feel this is a sell: 1. Sell Fractal in effect. 2. Alligator jaws NOW OPENED in tandem with sell Fractals. Alligator feeding in new down-trend. THIS IS YOUR DIRECTIONAL COMPASS. 3. Chop indicator (under chart) is ENTERING the shaded area. 4. Forward Ichimoku leading span (lower top indicator) is below the zero line. ** 5. 34 day moving average (top indicator)-is bearish . 6. Prices are trading into the Ichimoku Cloud . This is a sell signal. 8. Prices are trading below the Ki jun-Sen baseline of the Ichimoku Cloud . This is a sell signal. 9. Prices are trading below the thick red Ichimoku Cloud conversion line. This is a sell signal. 10. The red Ichimoku Cloud conversion line direction is heading lower. This is a sell signal. 11. The Ki jun-Sen baseline of the Ichimoku Cloud direction is heading lower. This is a sell signal. 12. The CHOP ZONE indicator (under chart) is red, indicating a down trend.
** The lower top indicator is a forward projection as follows: For an estimation of possible FORWARD TRENDING I use the Ichimoku Cloud Senkou Span A (Leading Span A): (Conversion Line + Base Line)/2)). This is the midpoint between the Conversion Line and the Base Line. The Leading Span A forms one of the two Cloud boundaries. It is referred to as "Leading" because it is plotted 26 periods in the future and forms the faster Cloud boundary. I then make an oscillator out of this and plot the progress up and down around a “zero line”. I HAVE THE RESULTS OF THESE CALCULATIONS FOR-IWM IN THE TOP LOWER INDICATOR. IT IS VERY NEGATIVE.
As I write this the futures are strong, indicating an up day. But don't be fooled. Between the-SPY and-IWM you have 2,500 picks. Yet most money managers and hedge fund managers are down for the year. I feel we have the setup for an-IWM market decline. To be fore-warned is to be fore-armed.
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As informações e publicações não devem ser e não constituem conselhos ou recomendações financeiras, de investimento, de negociação ou de qualquer outro tipo, fornecidas ou endossadas pela TradingView. Leia mais em Termos de uso.