Trump vs. Harris: What Impact Will Their Policies Have on Gold?

11 de set.

In the first presidential debate of 2024, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump highlighted their differences in economic policies. Harris proposed an "opportunity economy" approach, aiming to increase the child tax credit to $6,000 and offer tax deductions for small businesses. Trump defended his tariffs as necessary protection for the U.S. economy and linked immigration to economic problems, suggesting undocumented immigrants pose a threat to jobs and security. Harris criticized Trump’s economic management, pointing to high unemployment rates and the effects of the January 6 attack.

Globally, investors are focused on U.S. inflation data to assess economic health, with a Eurogroup meeting and rising Brent prices. Cryptocurrencies are volatile, with Bitcoin at $56,000 and Ethereum at $2,300. There’s also a decline in Asian stock indices and gold futures around $2,548. Harris criticized Trump’s trade wars and leniency with China, while Trump accused Harris of changing positions on key issues. Both candidates stressed the need for unity amid current political divisions.

Technical analysis of gold at $2,528.62 reveals several key points:
1. RSI (Relative Strength Index) at 60%: This indicates gold is in an uptrend but not overbought. A 60% RSI shows a strong uptrend without reaching extreme levels that might suggest an imminent correction.
2. Support at $2,472.28: This support level is crucial for price stability. If gold approaches or falls below this support, it could signal a potential correction or downtrend. Maintaining above this support is vital for continuing the uptrend.
3. Price Bell Curve: The triple bell shape of the price distribution, with a point of control (POC) around $2,000.00 and a second strong bell near $2,500.00, indicates significant price concentration around these levels. The $2,500.00 range is an area of interest where gold may find strong support but also suggests potential for a return to this value range.
4. Potential Impact:
o If Gold Surpasses Historical Resistance: It could rise further, potentially above $2,600, following the uptrend and bell resistance.
o If Gold Falls Below $2,472.28 Support: It might face a correction towards the POC at $2,000.00, as falling below support could trigger additional selling.
In summary, gold is at a critical phase where maintaining above $2,472.28 support is essential for continuing the uptrend. Resistance at highs should be closely monitored to determine if gold can continue rising to $2,600 or face a correction.

Ion Jauregui - ActivTrades Analyst








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