Gold reinforces its safe-haven status

The price of gold continues its upward trend and is approaching 2,900 dollars per ounce, registering an appreciation of close to 10% so far in 2025. Despite an apparent moderation in the tariff war being waged by the United States against Mexico and Canada, the precious metal continues to consolidate its position as a safe-haven asset in the face of inflationary risks and financial volatility.

Key factors behind gold's rally
Gold continues to attract investors amid geopolitical uncertainty, especially given the possibility of an escalation in the U.S.-China trade war. Also, the monetary policy of major central banks is influencing its price. The US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England have reduced their balance sheets, prompting central banks and large institutions to increase their gold reserves as a hedge against macroeconomic risks.


Growing demand and reserve accumulation
According to the World Gold Council (WGC), global gold demand reached 4,974 tons in 2024, with more than a quarter coming from central bank purchases. In the last quarter of last year, year-on-year demand grew by 1%, marking a new all-time high. In addition, gold ETFs have recorded an increase in their holdings for the first time since 2020, further cementing the metal's strength in financial markets.

Limited supply and the impact of Russia
Despite a 1% increase in total gold supply due to mining and recycling, demand has outstripped supply, contributing to the price spike. Russia, one of the largest gold producers, has stepped up its stockpiling in response to Western sanctions stemming from the conflict in Ukraine. The lack of concrete data on its production reinforces the perception of scarcity, generating further pressure on the price of the metal.

Technical Analysis
As we have been reporting in previous weeks, gold (Ticker AT:GOLD) regained its bullish tone since the 30th of last month. In just 7 days, the value of gold has risen 4.82%, breaking the target set at 2850 and reaching a new high of 2882.16 during the American trading day yesterday. If we take as a reference the last strong retracement, the Fibonacci retracements mark the next milestone to reach 2943.37 dollars per ounce (161.80% Fibonacci) which would coincide with the middle zone of the value. The next target to break after this is at $ 3193.36 (261.80% Fibonacci) should be around these values since the top of the upward channel could be located around $ 3500. If speculative movements continue to seek refuge in gold, 2025 will not end without such a radical shift. In the short term, the RSI indicates an oversold level of 41.02%, so this extension could regain strength in a short time. The Check Point Volume (POC) shows us that the average valuation of gold is in the area of 2635 dollars per ounce.

Outlook for gold in 2025
Gold continues to consolidate its position as one of the strongest assets of the year, driven by geopolitical uncertainty, institutional support and monetary policy tightening. Developments in international trade and the Federal Reserve's decisions will be determining factors in the precious metal's trajectory in the coming months. Investors will remain attentive to these developments in order to define their strategies in an increasingly volatile environment.






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