The Gold Odyssey - Gold-ing Down over the next years
Atualizado
I must attribute this post to my brother who texted me earlier this week asking for my opinion of where Gold is going. I did respond with a "Down" but I felt that I should also validate it properly. And lo and behold, I noticed a major pattern formation, that would break the previous trend/pattern.
Gold appears to be on a VERY CRITICAL LAST DAY of the month.
It needs to close well above 1685 to save it from the pattern break(down). Previously, since 2019, I started this series of The Gold Odyssey documenting Gold's bullish journey, andI think it is about time that Gold changes trend from Bullish to Bearish.
The monthly Gold futures chart is shown here with two very similar pattern breaks. Well, in about 8 hours, we will know if there is a pattern break, and a new bearish pattern truly emerges...
In 2011-2013, a major Gold top formed, and in this formation a couple of characteristics formed:
1. a monthly lower high was formed;
2. a breakdown below the 55 Hull EHMA;
3. a breakdown out of the triangle formation; and
4. MACD cross down into bearish territory
In 2020, Gold made a historical high, and since then, Gold did these few things:
1. a monthly lower high was formed; ✅
2. a breakdown below the 55 Hull EHMA; ✅
3. a breakdown out of the triangle formation; and (candle NOT YET closed, on last few hours now)
4. MACD cross down into bearish territory ✅
The patterns are uncanny and a dead ringer for further downside, projected in a similar fashion to 1275 around later 2024.
Conceptually, longer term patterns are more difficult to form (or break).
Notwithstanding, the Gold monthly chart appears to be suggesting that the relatively trusty Cup and Handle pattern (about 90% success) is broken, and a bearish phase is developing with the monthly lower low and (potentially, at this time of writing) a break down out of the triangle.
In summary, the long term technical set up here is suggesting that Gold will be bearish to 1275 over the next two years. Today, it is just the beginning.
Food for thought here, especially for those who had loaded up in Gold over the last couple of years... will revisit once the month, and quarter, is done.
Gold appears to be on a VERY CRITICAL LAST DAY of the month.
It needs to close well above 1685 to save it from the pattern break(down). Previously, since 2019, I started this series of The Gold Odyssey documenting Gold's bullish journey, andI think it is about time that Gold changes trend from Bullish to Bearish.
The monthly Gold futures chart is shown here with two very similar pattern breaks. Well, in about 8 hours, we will know if there is a pattern break, and a new bearish pattern truly emerges...
In 2011-2013, a major Gold top formed, and in this formation a couple of characteristics formed:
1. a monthly lower high was formed;
2. a breakdown below the 55 Hull EHMA;
3. a breakdown out of the triangle formation; and
4. MACD cross down into bearish territory
In 2020, Gold made a historical high, and since then, Gold did these few things:
1. a monthly lower high was formed; ✅
2. a breakdown below the 55 Hull EHMA; ✅
3. a breakdown out of the triangle formation; and (candle NOT YET closed, on last few hours now)
4. MACD cross down into bearish territory ✅
The patterns are uncanny and a dead ringer for further downside, projected in a similar fashion to 1275 around later 2024.
Conceptually, longer term patterns are more difficult to form (or break).
Notwithstanding, the Gold monthly chart appears to be suggesting that the relatively trusty Cup and Handle pattern (about 90% success) is broken, and a bearish phase is developing with the monthly lower low and (potentially, at this time of writing) a break down out of the triangle.
In summary, the long term technical set up here is suggesting that Gold will be bearish to 1275 over the next two years. Today, it is just the beginning.
Food for thought here, especially for those who had loaded up in Gold over the last couple of years... will revisit once the month, and quarter, is done.
Nota
Broke down and out of the triangle as described above.Oh no...
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