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TECHNICALS:
The GBP was the best-performing major currency in July, indicating the possibility of a mean-reverting behavior in early August. The pair has already reached a major daily resistance level where sellers joined the market and pushed the price lower, forming a bearish reversal candlestick pattern.
The 1-hour chart shows a reversal of the uptrend, with the price starting to form fresh lower lows and lower highs, signaling a possible retest of recent lows.
POSITIONING:
The latest positioning data from CFTC shows an accumulation of short positions in the pound (our score 2/10). The US dollar remained sold as well, but there could be a higher chance of a USD recovery/strength given the recent weakness in the currency.
CORRELATIONS:
2 year yield differentials show a neutral picture at the moment.
RISK SENTIMENT: Neutral / Risk-On
THEMES:
The main news event for the pound this week will be the Bank of England policy meeting, scheduled for Thursday. While rates are expected to remain unchanged, markets will be looking for signs of whether the bank will expand its quantitative easing.
== SUMMARY ==
We remain bearish on the GBP/USD pair.
TECHNICALS:
The GBP was the best-performing major currency in July, indicating the possibility of a mean-reverting behavior in early August. The pair has already reached a major daily resistance level where sellers joined the market and pushed the price lower, forming a bearish reversal candlestick pattern.
The 1-hour chart shows a reversal of the uptrend, with the price starting to form fresh lower lows and lower highs, signaling a possible retest of recent lows.
POSITIONING:
The latest positioning data from CFTC shows an accumulation of short positions in the pound (our score 2/10). The US dollar remained sold as well, but there could be a higher chance of a USD recovery/strength given the recent weakness in the currency.
CORRELATIONS:
2 year yield differentials show a neutral picture at the moment.
RISK SENTIMENT: Neutral / Risk-On
THEMES:
The main news event for the pound this week will be the Bank of England policy meeting, scheduled for Thursday. While rates are expected to remain unchanged, markets will be looking for signs of whether the bank will expand its quantitative easing.
== SUMMARY ==
We remain bearish on the GBP/USD pair.
