News background and trading ideas for 29/01/2019
Monday was relatively calm in the financial markets. Which is understandable, traders keep strength, since already today the real slaughter, at least in some assets.
Today, for instance, we’ll get another portion of news from British Parliament. The vote promises to be more than unpredictable. There are a lot of alternatives on the agenda, one is better another: to postpone Brexit, hold a repeated referendum, give Brexit under Parliament control, vote the amendments and send May for another round of negotiations, etc. The outcomes are not predictable. But there is one common thing which unites everybody - the reluctance of the “harsh” Brexit. We warned last fall yet that there are no political suicides in the British Parliament. Actually, now we see the confirmation of this. What does this mean for a pound? By and large, the options for the results are located on a scale from good to very good. “Soft” Brexit is good for a pound. A repeated referendum (which will almost certainly convincingly demonstrate the UK’s desire to remain in the EU) is very good. Accordingly, virtually any outcome of this evening will play into the hands of the pound. This means that you can and should buy it. And do not be afraid that it has already increased by 500 points lately. We have noted before that the growth potential is 1000+ points. So there is still a place for growth.
In other news, funding of US government is partially unblocked, but Trump still doesn't show an agreement capacity, which means that it could circle back in a couple of weeks (meaning blocking funding with the possibility of imposing a state of emergency in the country). Plus, the markets are quite skeptical about tomorrow's Fed meeting and its outcomes (but we'll talk about it tomorrow). Amid such circumstances, you probably shouldn’t buy a dollar. So we continue to recommend looking for points for its sales
List of our recommendations following the results of Monday without changes: we continue looking for points for the pound purchases, as well as the dollar sales generally. Besides, while oil has not taken hold above 53.50 (WTI brand), we recommend its sales. While gold is above 1294, we are looking for points for its purchases both intraday and mid-term. Recommendations for the Russian ruble sale continue to be relevant.
Today, for instance, we’ll get another portion of news from British Parliament. The vote promises to be more than unpredictable. There are a lot of alternatives on the agenda, one is better another: to postpone Brexit, hold a repeated referendum, give Brexit under Parliament control, vote the amendments and send May for another round of negotiations, etc. The outcomes are not predictable. But there is one common thing which unites everybody - the reluctance of the “harsh” Brexit. We warned last fall yet that there are no political suicides in the British Parliament. Actually, now we see the confirmation of this. What does this mean for a pound? By and large, the options for the results are located on a scale from good to very good. “Soft” Brexit is good for a pound. A repeated referendum (which will almost certainly convincingly demonstrate the UK’s desire to remain in the EU) is very good. Accordingly, virtually any outcome of this evening will play into the hands of the pound. This means that you can and should buy it. And do not be afraid that it has already increased by 500 points lately. We have noted before that the growth potential is 1000+ points. So there is still a place for growth.
In other news, funding of US government is partially unblocked, but Trump still doesn't show an agreement capacity, which means that it could circle back in a couple of weeks (meaning blocking funding with the possibility of imposing a state of emergency in the country). Plus, the markets are quite skeptical about tomorrow's Fed meeting and its outcomes (but we'll talk about it tomorrow). Amid such circumstances, you probably shouldn’t buy a dollar. So we continue to recommend looking for points for its sales
List of our recommendations following the results of Monday without changes: we continue looking for points for the pound purchases, as well as the dollar sales generally. Besides, while oil has not taken hold above 53.50 (WTI brand), we recommend its sales. While gold is above 1294, we are looking for points for its purchases both intraday and mid-term. Recommendations for the Russian ruble sale continue to be relevant.
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