Cable: Super Thursday and why I believe BOE will not be hawkish
We reach to Super Thursday with all market attention on Bank of England Meeting.
In Bristish Pound Super Thursday :
- BOE Inflation Report.
- BOE Press Conference
- BOE Mark Carney Speech
- BOE Interest rate decision.
What does market expect ?.
- Consensus hope there are at least two member of BOE vote for rate hike.
- How to BOE deals with low inflation in UK.
- And the tone of BOE about current situation: Hawkish or Neutral.
- If there is no vote hike, and the vote unchanged are 9, definitely no one wants to hold Cable anymore.
As a result, with no vote uchanged, BOE must keep neutral stance and cautious attitude to inflation and wait for more incoming data.
Market put much hope on BOE as the next central bank hikes rate following FED.
But I think they hope too high, in fact, UK economic data is not good as we think.
- Inflation is still very low with CORE CPI is at 0.8% and CPI is pritned at 0%, while labor market didn't improve in recent reports, and yesterday PMI Construction and Market PMI Services were negative.
That is the reason I think BOE would be carefull in this meeting.
GBPUSD should go down than go up.
- Technical Analysis
- GBPUSD still hold in wedge pattern : below key resistance level at 1.5675, and above bullish trend line.
Any break those levels always goes with a TREND.
If I choose BEARISH side, resistance become a stop loss, target I choo se is at SMA100 and strong support at 1.5335
In Bristish Pound Super Thursday :
- BOE Inflation Report.
- BOE Press Conference
- BOE Mark Carney Speech
- BOE Interest rate decision.
What does market expect ?.
- Consensus hope there are at least two member of BOE vote for rate hike.
- How to BOE deals with low inflation in UK.
- And the tone of BOE about current situation: Hawkish or Neutral.
- If there is no vote hike, and the vote unchanged are 9, definitely no one wants to hold Cable anymore.
As a result, with no vote uchanged, BOE must keep neutral stance and cautious attitude to inflation and wait for more incoming data.
Market put much hope on BOE as the next central bank hikes rate following FED.
But I think they hope too high, in fact, UK economic data is not good as we think.
- Inflation is still very low with CORE CPI is at 0.8% and CPI is pritned at 0%, while labor market didn't improve in recent reports, and yesterday PMI Construction and Market PMI Services were negative.
That is the reason I think BOE would be carefull in this meeting.
GBPUSD should go down than go up.
- Technical Analysis
- GBPUSD still hold in wedge pattern : below key resistance level at 1.5675, and above bullish trend line.
Any break those levels always goes with a TREND.
If I choose BEARISH side, resistance become a stop loss, target I choo se is at SMA100 and strong support at 1.5335
