Libra Esterlina/Iene JaponêsViés de baixa
Stop-Hunt and Reversal on GBPJPY
Primary Scenario: Stop-Hunt and Reversal
Upward Stop-Hunt: GBPJPY may spike up briefly to 199.50–200.00 to trigger stops placed by retail traders and trap late buyers. This move would give institutions a liquidity pool to establish or increase short positions at higher prices.
Reversal from Stophunt Zone: After this upward spike, we’re likely to see a sharp reversal, with GBPJPY moving lower as GBP weakens and JPY starts to strengthen. The reversal could be swift as trapped retail longs get squeezed out.
Downside Target: 197.50–197.80 Zone
Once the reversal begins, GBPJPY is likely to move towards the Gap/Take-Profit Zone around 197.50–197.80. This area aligns with the next support level and would be a logical first target for a short position.
If selling momentum is strong and JPY continues to strengthen, GBPJPY could even test lower levels, potentially falling toward the bottom of the ascending channel or below.
The combination of COT data (indicating institutional short positioning on GBP and long positioning on JPY) with this technical setup suggests a high probability of a GBPJPY pullback. Watch for an initial stop-hunt spike toward 199.50–200.00, followed by a reversal targeting the 197.50–197.80 zone as the first area for profit-taking.
Upward Stop-Hunt: GBPJPY may spike up briefly to 199.50–200.00 to trigger stops placed by retail traders and trap late buyers. This move would give institutions a liquidity pool to establish or increase short positions at higher prices.
Reversal from Stophunt Zone: After this upward spike, we’re likely to see a sharp reversal, with GBPJPY moving lower as GBP weakens and JPY starts to strengthen. The reversal could be swift as trapped retail longs get squeezed out.
Downside Target: 197.50–197.80 Zone
Once the reversal begins, GBPJPY is likely to move towards the Gap/Take-Profit Zone around 197.50–197.80. This area aligns with the next support level and would be a logical first target for a short position.
If selling momentum is strong and JPY continues to strengthen, GBPJPY could even test lower levels, potentially falling toward the bottom of the ascending channel or below.
The combination of COT data (indicating institutional short positioning on GBP and long positioning on JPY) with this technical setup suggests a high probability of a GBPJPY pullback. Watch for an initial stop-hunt spike toward 199.50–200.00, followed by a reversal targeting the 197.50–197.80 zone as the first area for profit-taking.
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