Unemployment Rate (Inverted) vs. SPX (Log) 🌐🏴‍☠️

4 de jul. de 2020

I like to overlay charts like this on the weekend. It's my form of mediation.

4 de jul. de 2020

Nota

I am not a financial advisor and please don't use this as investment advice. Here is an interesting chart that summarizes the main a bullish argument very well. The US unemployment is inverted, making it much easier to see the relation it has with the stop market. You can see the tops and bottoms happen in correlational As unemployment get's better, stocks get better. Simple right? Well, it's never been an issue in history, however now-- it could be the first time in history where we see higher rates of unemployment in the future, which would push the market higher in the SHORT term. However, the clear technical price listen in the chart I dont think will be hit in the short time, and thus am bearish short term, medium term, and longterm (3-months, 6months, and 12 months.).

4 de jul. de 2020

Nota

One big thing to make clear is that positions have been taken. Is the case, should the market go bearish, very little have short positions written, you will see a conversion rate; as some of the bearish investors turn bullish and buy bonds as interest rates could possibly rise. I don't think the the market will turn from here form support, and I think it will break to the downside. If it doesn't here's the exact weekend before it either made a historical move down, or to new highs!!