Facebook: There's Nothing Funny About a False Breakout

31 de jan. de 2020

Facebook dropped sharply on Thursday after quarterly results raised questions about its longer-term growth story. Sure, the backward looking numbers weren't bad. But looking forward, newer offerings like Instagram don't seem to be catching fire. The "big blue app," with its slow-growing and ageing user base, isn't really thrilling investors.

This stands in contrast with other big tech names like Apple, Microsoft, Amazon.com and Tesla. Those are all evolving their businesses toward the "next big thing."

The technicals, as usual, show these fundamentals clearly: AAPL, MSFT, AMZN and TSLA have broken out to new highs. FB has not only failed to break out. It has a failed breakout.

This week's price action could have a long-term impact on the social-media giant because it represents a double-top spanning 18 months. Patterns like this are often followed by months, if not years, of consolidation and pain. Just look at Alphabet's trading after its April 30, 2019, bearish gap.

That argues against rushing into FB here. Some chart watchers may like the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) and the $205.50 support area from July 2019. But this week's high-volume false breakout and double top could prove more powerful to the downside. It could be too early to buy the dip.