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Does top-picking work?

OANDA:EURUSD   Euro / Dólar Americano
No.

By now you'd be wrong 5 times already if you had taken trades at significant points where people thought the Euro would turn around.

Why not just follow the trend?

Yes, if you keep guessing, eventually you're going to be right but the journey isn't worth it.

When there's a clear fundamentally-driven trend - its not a good idea to go against it.

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