EURUSD, Biggest pump of past 2 years :) 5% Bitcoin Bonus :)
Wow, it'going MUCH better than i could even dream off :). USD getting dumped big time past 2 weeks. I have not really checked others, but my guess is, most prob saw a bearish play after the first bounce because it broke support 2 weeks ago around 1.10. So using 1.10 as a sell point.
Well usually this works of course, but at the moment TA is a bit useless on lower time frames. At least useless when using the wrong direction/trend as your basis.
The Fundamentals are ruling at the moment, which was my main reason for taking on this trade and using TA to find a nice entry point which looked pretty basic, especially in hindsight :). We don't get these easy trades a lot, but they do present them selves if we are patient enough to wait for them and NOT trying to find them. Of course you need to find them, but i mean not looking for difficult signs in a chart and then thinking this is it. It should actually be that when you open the chart, it should be almost clear withing seconds. Then you try to find some extra signs and confirmations.
About the fundamentals, main reason why the USD has held up past year or so, is because the US intrest rate was much higher than most other countries. Where in Europe people need to pay intrest over their savings, in the US you would still get payed. Now with the Corona Virus, there was a good chance this would have come to an end, knowing Trump would of course try to force the FED to lower their intrest rate. Experienced people know this and get ahead of this. Now because the FED did a surprise rate cut earlier this week ( so sooner than expected), the rally of the EUR/USD accelerated even. With the US debt and all other factors, i just think that things look pretty bad for the USD.
The US stock market outperformed the rest of the world extremely past half year, probably because most people assumed/knew that Trump would do everything he can to pump the market so he can continue to Tweet on a daily basis about how great he is and how great the US economy is. With the main goal of course, to be reelected again. Now because of the Corona virus, things have completely changed now. It's something that nobody thought about of course and nobody can stop. As long as this continues, world economies will get hit, prob very hard even. So as foreign investors jumped in the US stock market pas year, being at extreme highs, and now with the current problems, think it makes sense that many of these foreign investors will sell their US investments and move back to their own currency. So i believe that this factor and (maybe the most important one) the (expected) FED intrest rate cut, are fueling the dump on the USD.
I personally believe this can continue for a very long time, so my position, as clearly mentioned, is long term, maybe even for many years. When i gave this trade week or 2 ago, i assumed the low might be set (because of TA), with this big pump on EUR/USD, very big chance that the low is confirmed now.
I expected to see some resistance around the 1.120, was a very big resisance zone, but it prob also confirms that TA has less value and FA is ruling at the moment. A correction or some consolidation would make most sense for the coming days, but honestly, these are exceptional days so i really think that anything can happen. A big dump for EUR/USD is very unlikely, but simply continuing to pump still could happen instead of some sideways action.
For the ones who did not see my previous analysis, i suggest to read it. Suggested for Bitcoin investors with serious amounts to at least think about hedging their $ value, because we really got an amazing price at that point. It's up almost 5% now, so on each 100K you would have in Bitcoins, when hedging as i suggested, has earned you around 5K on your total balance.
Please don't forget to like if you appreciate this :)|
Previous analysis:
Well usually this works of course, but at the moment TA is a bit useless on lower time frames. At least useless when using the wrong direction/trend as your basis.
The Fundamentals are ruling at the moment, which was my main reason for taking on this trade and using TA to find a nice entry point which looked pretty basic, especially in hindsight :). We don't get these easy trades a lot, but they do present them selves if we are patient enough to wait for them and NOT trying to find them. Of course you need to find them, but i mean not looking for difficult signs in a chart and then thinking this is it. It should actually be that when you open the chart, it should be almost clear withing seconds. Then you try to find some extra signs and confirmations.
About the fundamentals, main reason why the USD has held up past year or so, is because the US intrest rate was much higher than most other countries. Where in Europe people need to pay intrest over their savings, in the US you would still get payed. Now with the Corona Virus, there was a good chance this would have come to an end, knowing Trump would of course try to force the FED to lower their intrest rate. Experienced people know this and get ahead of this. Now because the FED did a surprise rate cut earlier this week ( so sooner than expected), the rally of the EUR/USD accelerated even. With the US debt and all other factors, i just think that things look pretty bad for the USD.
The US stock market outperformed the rest of the world extremely past half year, probably because most people assumed/knew that Trump would do everything he can to pump the market so he can continue to Tweet on a daily basis about how great he is and how great the US economy is. With the main goal of course, to be reelected again. Now because of the Corona virus, things have completely changed now. It's something that nobody thought about of course and nobody can stop. As long as this continues, world economies will get hit, prob very hard even. So as foreign investors jumped in the US stock market pas year, being at extreme highs, and now with the current problems, think it makes sense that many of these foreign investors will sell their US investments and move back to their own currency. So i believe that this factor and (maybe the most important one) the (expected) FED intrest rate cut, are fueling the dump on the USD.
I personally believe this can continue for a very long time, so my position, as clearly mentioned, is long term, maybe even for many years. When i gave this trade week or 2 ago, i assumed the low might be set (because of TA), with this big pump on EUR/USD, very big chance that the low is confirmed now.
I expected to see some resistance around the 1.120, was a very big resisance zone, but it prob also confirms that TA has less value and FA is ruling at the moment. A correction or some consolidation would make most sense for the coming days, but honestly, these are exceptional days so i really think that anything can happen. A big dump for EUR/USD is very unlikely, but simply continuing to pump still could happen instead of some sideways action.
For the ones who did not see my previous analysis, i suggest to read it. Suggested for Bitcoin investors with serious amounts to at least think about hedging their $ value, because we really got an amazing price at that point. It's up almost 5% now, so on each 100K you would have in Bitcoins, when hedging as i suggested, has earned you around 5K on your total balance.
Please don't forget to like if you appreciate this :)|
Previous analysis:
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