Falling Fast: Is EUR/USD Aiming for New Lows?

he weekly chart is showing strong bearish momentum after the break below the 1.08660 support level. Right now, price is sitting just above 1.08000, and that 200-day EMA (around 1.08711) above us is acting as strong resistance. With price breaking through the previous key support, this pair is in a clear downtrend. The next key level to watch is 1.07233, which could act as a strong support zone if we continue to drop.

On the daily chart, price continues to grind lower, riding that downward channel, and we’re firmly below both the 21-day EMA and the 200-day EMA, which is only reinforcing the bearish sentiment. What I’ll be looking for is a clean retest of the 1.08660 level, which used to be support but now should act as resistance. If we get that retest and the bears hold, I’m jumping into a sell position with a target around 1.07233, and I'll keep an eye on price action for a further push to 1.0600 if the trend keeps pushing.

On the 4-hour chart, EUR/USD has been in a clear downtrend, with price consistently making lower lows and lower highs. We see price respecting the 21 EMA, which is acting as dynamic resistance here. The most recent candles are showing some consolidation around 1.07980, indicating a potential brief pause before the next leg down.

What I’m watching for on the 4-hour is a retracement back towards the 1.08660 resistance zone. If price pulls back to retest that zone and fails to break above it, that’s where I’ll be looking to re-enter short positions. The 200 EMA on this timeframe is still sitting higher up, so we’re in strong bearish territory with some room to go. If we don’t get a pullback, and price continues its descent, the next stop for sellers is the 1.07233 level.

So, overall on the 4-hour, I’m eyeing that retracement for a clean entry or continuation down toward our take profit targets.
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Sheena Lynne
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