Euro / Dólar AmericanoViés de baixa
EURUSD Macro Update
The Euro has sunk and moved in line with our last market update however our models are now signalling signs of greater downside risk than a short/medium risk reversal.
Macro view
Options
- A bearish shift in market sentiment with put options (bearish bets) now claiming the highest premium in nearly four months
- One-month risk reversals (EUR1MRR) (higher volatility put premiums), crossed below zero on the 10th February and fell to -0.425 last Friday, the lowest level seen since 29th October 2019
Futures
- Hedge funds (leveraged funds) substantially increasing EUR short positions
Thematics
- Dollar bid remain supported under risk aversion
Technicals
- Symmetrical swing into 1.07xx institutional floor likely before any meaningful correction
Our last update
Macro view
Options
- A bearish shift in market sentiment with put options (bearish bets) now claiming the highest premium in nearly four months
- One-month risk reversals (EUR1MRR) (higher volatility put premiums), crossed below zero on the 10th February and fell to -0.425 last Friday, the lowest level seen since 29th October 2019
Futures
- Hedge funds (leveraged funds) substantially increasing EUR short positions
Thematics
- Dollar bid remain supported under risk aversion
Technicals
- Symmetrical swing into 1.07xx institutional floor likely before any meaningful correction
Our last update
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