Looking at the 4h chart, there's a clear formation of an ascending triangle. Short-term we can expect a bounce from the rising lows, which it already did, and take profit near the flat top. Giving a little room to the triangle, a break below the black line would completely negate the formation of this pattern so it could be used as stop loss. Trading within this triangle, we can make small profits.
Long term, I'm not sure which way the trend will go. There could be a reversal like 2017, where there was an initial downtrend, then a bullish ascending triangle, followed by an uptrend. Or it could simply continue the downtrend. And trends tend to be stronger than patterns like this.
One thing to consider is that US indices went through a big correction last quarter. If a potential recession plays out, with such factors like heightened trade war tension, the demand for USD will increase as USD is the world's default funding currency. On the other hand, ECB just ended their Asset Purchase Program (APP) which indicates that they're switching their monetary policy from dovish to hawkish. In other words, they're leaning towards austerity and this would affect the supply and demand for EUR.
Right now there are too many uncertainties and the market can go in any direction.
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Long term, I'm not sure which way the trend will go. There could be a reversal like 2017, where there was an initial downtrend, then a bullish ascending triangle, followed by an uptrend. Or it could simply continue the downtrend. And trends tend to be stronger than patterns like this.
One thing to consider is that US indices went through a big correction last quarter. If a potential recession plays out, with such factors like heightened trade war tension, the demand for USD will increase as USD is the world's default funding currency. On the other hand, ECB just ended their Asset Purchase Program (APP) which indicates that they're switching their monetary policy from dovish to hawkish. In other words, they're leaning towards austerity and this would affect the supply and demand for EUR.
Right now there are too many uncertainties and the market can go in any direction.
Leave a like, comment!