EURUSD 23 Feb 2024 W8 - Intraday Analysis - German GDP/IFO

This is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 23 Feb 2024 W8 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames:

1. 4H
   
2. 15m
   

4H Chart Analysis


1.

• Swing Bearish
  
• INT Bullish
  
• Swing Pullback Phase
  

2.

• After a BOS and iBOS we expect a Pullback.
  
• As expected after the Bullish CHoCH and mitigation of 4H/Daily Demand zones, we initiated the INT Structure Pullback.
  
• Price reached the 4H/Daily Supply and from there we could start the bearish continuation.
  
• Price failed to continue the bearish move and as expected it changed bullish and created iBOS confirming Swing Low and Bearish Swing Pullback Phase started.
  

3.

• After Bullish iBOS confirming Swing Pullback Phase started, We are expecting INT Pullback.
  
• Price reached the 4H Supply as expected and showed solid reaction from there. This reaction is starting the Bullish INT Structure Pullback.
  
• We didn't do a Bearish CHoCH to confirm INT High yet. So, there is a probability that price could tap into the CHoCH.
  
• Also we tapped into a Daily Demand (Not a HP zone) which is currently containing price.
  
• As the 4H Swing is bearish, the Swing pullback could be done after reaching the 4H Supply, Bearish CHoCH will be the initial weak conformation and a Bearish iBOS will be the solid confirmation for that scenario.
  
• Other scenario is a deeper Swing Pullback and 4H INT will stay Bullish to facilitate that view.
  

15m Chart Analysis



1.

• Swing Bullish
  
• INT Bullish
  
• INT Continuation Phase
  

2.

• Swing turned bullish to facilitate the 4H Swing Pullback.
  
• After BOS we expect a pullback. No HTF POI price tapped into yet to start the pullback.
  
• Price reached the 4H Supply as expected and from there started the 15m INT Structure Pullback.
  
• We reached the INT Structure extreme and price started a bounce.
  
• Still we are in Bearish Fractal and the CHoCH is high and this will lead to 2 scenarios,
  
• Scenario 1: Price respecting the 15m INT Structure and continue up.
  
• Scenario 2: Price will target the 4H CHoCH (15m INT Low) initiate a move to the up side from the 4H Demand. (Bearish iBOS, 4H Demand will initiate a Pullback)
  

3.

• 15m/4H Demand to initiate a bullish continuation after sweeping the 4H LIQ (CHoCH) if we didn't confirm Bearish 15m iBOS.
  
• If Bearish iBOS confirmed, it will be risky and the 4H Demand will provide imo a pullback only.
  
• Waiting for more price development.