EURUSD: Post-GDP Update. When Does Wave 2 End And Wave 3 Begin?

30 de jul. de 2015

Well, as been said many times, the market will do what the market will do. And it's never wrong! Only our interpretation of the price movements are wrong. Having said that, after making all the right predictions right down to the TP1 & TP2 of the completed shark pattern and bagging +282 pips, the market goes and DESTROYS the smaller bullish shark and bullish bat patterns (removed from chart) I thought would signal the start of a reversal and the beginning of wave (iii). (See Related Ideas section to see my previous posts on this).

So now I get back to it and re-analyze what is happening and make a new prediction. Nothing has changed the fact that there is a wave C coming and that prices are currently stuck in wave B down. This wave B has turned out to be an extended extreme harmonic AB=CD pattern in harmonic terms. Wave count-wise, it is still a abc zigzag unfolding in a 5-3-5 wave count but with an extended wave c. I won't bother to break down the internal wave counts as it's not needed. I've placed the extended targets for this AB=CD pattern. Notice that the 2.24 has confluence with the .786 retrace of the former up trend and the 2.618 has confluence with the .886 retrace.

I had posted another POTENTIAL bullish bat pattern (purple) in my previous post that ends at the .707 retrace. I have now added a POTENTIAL bullish crab pattern (green) that ends near the .786 retrace of the previous up trend. Well within the "Goldilocks Zone" which is where I would expect a reversal to happen. But both the .707 and the .786 are possible reversal points. The .786 is favored though.

WHAT I AM EXPECTING NOW
I expect prices to work it's way down into the "Goldilocks Zone" and fill the Bat and probably the crab. Completing the crab is favored since it has confluence with the .786 retrace. This would be a very good point to expect a possible reversal. From there, if prices keep moving down to the .886, it's well within the PRZ of the crab and makes the reversal ever more likely to occur. Remember, prices normally enter the crab D point violently and usually will test the PRZ of the crab pattern. Notice also that at least on the 1Hr TF, the RSI is already oversold and on the higher TF's, are very close to getting there. This may take another 8-12 hours for prices to get down there though, so patience is key. In the meantime, I don't expect an elevator ride straight down. More like a staircase with some small retracements along the way and then a final fall into the crab's completion.

*DISCLAIMER:
Please keep in mind that I am not giving any trading signals here. Only providing my own trade thoughts for your benefit and insight as to my trading technique and style. Please don't ask if you should or should not take the trade. If you are not sure, then you do not have a trading plan for yourself in place. I suggest you make one before you continue to do any trading!

If you like my posts and find them helpful, please take a second to hit that LIKE button and follow me so I will know my posts are useful to you. Doing so will encourage me to post more! As always, all comments are welcome.