EUR/USD: Fluctuations and Challenges Amidst US Economic Data

3 de mar.

The EUR/USD exchange rate continues to fluctuate within its daily range above the level of 1.0800 during Friday's American session. Economic data from the United States shows that the ISM Manufacturing PMI decreased more than expected in February, making it difficult for the US dollar to gain momentum. Nonetheless, the EUR/USD has found support around 1.0800 but still needs to surpass the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, currently around 1.0820. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator remains just below 50, indicating a lack of momentum in the recovery phase. If the EUR/USD manages to consolidate above 1.0820 and utilize that level as support, we could see the next resistance at 1.0860, followed by 1.0900-1.0910. However, a 4-hour close below 1.0800 could attract technical sellers, pushing the exchange rate towards 1.0760 and 1.0720. The EUR/USD was under bearish pressure during Thursday's American trading hours and closed in negative territory for the third consecutive day. Although the exchange rate manages to stay above 1.0800 on Friday, it might struggle to recover unless Eurozone inflation data supports the euro. Favorable comments on monetary tightening from Federal Reserve (Fed) members following the inflation data strengthened the US dollar, causing the EUR/USD to turn downward. Eurostat will publish the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices for February, with forecasts of a 2.5% increase. I expect a breakout on the daily level of 1.088 with a break of supply and subsequent retracement for a retest before the upward momentum towards 1.0950. Best wishes and have a good start to the week everyone.