Similar to my EurUSD chart, we are in the middle of the wave 3, of the wave 5, of the greater trend.
My reasoning behind this is stated below: 1: A very clear extended third wave can be seen. All of the rules and guidelines for an impulse wave have been followed. 2 does not retrace beyond the start of 1 3 is not the shortest wave 1,3 and 5 are not all extended. 4 does not move into the price territory of wave 1. We see a deep and long wave 2, and an alternating wave 4 that is short and shallow.
The target for the wave 5 is the 3.414 -3.618 fib extension of the primary wave 1.
Using the mika.k time technique I anticipate this will happen sometime on april 14th, from 11-21:00. My concerns with the time technique for this chart, is that the wave 4 of the primary trend has been very hard to identify. I will only know if my wave 4 termination is correct depending on the termination of the wave 5. If the wave 5 moves to my target within the time I predict, it confirms that my wave 4 was accurate.
My other concerns with this chart, is that the wave 5 doesn't end up moving to the 3.618 extension of wave 1, but instead stops at around 1.60595. This would happen in a situation where the bullish momentum isn't as great as I forecast it to be. If the bullish momentum for wave 5 dies down, we can see it going towards the 1.60657 target, but if the momentum continues further, I believe a 3.414 -3.618 target from the primary wave 1 is possible.
My final concern is that the wave 4 I have outlined isn't as picture perfect as I would like it to be. It doesn't show a clear corrective form. I assume that this isn't that bad, since it could imply that there is a lot of bullish momentum.
Trade fechado: stop atingido
Well, I am glad that my winning streak is finally broken, so now I can afford to take more risks. I am still unsure about the priceaction from the start of april 12th. We have hit the 1.65 extension which made for a clear wave 3, but since then, we have reached back into wave 1 territory, telling me that this isn't a wave 5.
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