Retail Day, IEA Report and Some Problems in China

17 de nov. de 2021

Yesterday can be called a retail day, at least on a US scale. Data on retail sales in the United States were published, as well as reports from key retailers: Walmart and Home Depot. And it was a good day. Retail sales in the US rose 1.7%, while experts expected growth of 1.4%.

The reporting of retailers was also encouraging. Both Walmart and Home Depot's third-quarter earnings and earnings exceeded experts' expectations. As a result, Walmart raised its revenue forecast for the year. And this season of festive madness has not begun yet.

In general, according to FactSet, almost 95% of companies from the S&P 500 have already reported, of which 81% presented better-than-expected profit results. So the reporting season was more than a success. In this light, the growth of US stock indices looked quite logical and reasonable yesterday.

Following the OPEC and EIA reports, the International Energy Agency (IEA) published its vision of the oil market yesterday. The demand forecast for the fourth quarter is unchanged, but the supply growth is expected to be 330K more than before. And in general, by December, Saudi Arabia and Russia will be pumping more than 10 million barrels per day - for the first time since April last year.

As for oil prices, the EIA is not particularly counting on it: not only because of expectations of an increase in supply, but also due to the increase in Covid-19 diseases in Europe and weaker manufacturing activity than previously expected.

Since we started talking about problems, it would be no sin to remember China, where developers are desperately looking for cash: someone like Sunac China sells off shares on the cheap, someone like China Aoyuan Group real estate in Hong Kong, and someone like Kaisa Group all I also could not scrape together the money for the next payment and delayed it by starting the timer of my loan day. So you shouldn't relax: there are enough threats on the horizon.