Daily:
Knee jerk bullish breakout on the day of SNB decision quickly faded. Why? Simple: Hungary doesn't really have FX risk exposure as the smart Government has already converted all CHF based private household loans to HUF at the end of last year. With not much FX risk left for the country, the pressure on HUF is limited. Short term their macro figures are not that bad, especially the C/A surplus is something that can help HUF strength from time to time.
Slow Stoch is bearish, MACD is bearish and most importantly Kijun Sen moved up close to recent Price candle. Also Chikou Span is losing open space a bit. We may still see some range trading between 318-321 before it can start a swing lower.
How does Heiken Ashi picture look like? (mid panel)
After a reversal candle signal two days ago HA candles changed color to red, however today's candle has a small upper wick again. It says the bearish momentum has not yet started to accelerate. But if we look at haDelta, there we can see it has been below SMA3 for some time, and by now both lines are below zero key level. So the chance for a bearish extension is increasing.
4 Hrs: Well, after some consolidation yesterday and today it looks like there is good chance for a bearish Kumo breakout. Slow Stoch turned down again, Price is trading below 100WMA and attacking a very thin Kumo. Future Kumo made its bearish twist and Chikou Span can soon cross below past Price candles too. The key resistance area is 317,30-318.
Strategy: Close existing longs, start to short smalls in spikes, size up position with a decisive 4Hrs Kumo breakout.
Knee jerk bullish breakout on the day of SNB decision quickly faded. Why? Simple: Hungary doesn't really have FX risk exposure as the smart Government has already converted all CHF based private household loans to HUF at the end of last year. With not much FX risk left for the country, the pressure on HUF is limited. Short term their macro figures are not that bad, especially the C/A surplus is something that can help HUF strength from time to time.
Slow Stoch is bearish, MACD is bearish and most importantly Kijun Sen moved up close to recent Price candle. Also Chikou Span is losing open space a bit. We may still see some range trading between 318-321 before it can start a swing lower.
How does Heiken Ashi picture look like? (mid panel)
After a reversal candle signal two days ago HA candles changed color to red, however today's candle has a small upper wick again. It says the bearish momentum has not yet started to accelerate. But if we look at haDelta, there we can see it has been below SMA3 for some time, and by now both lines are below zero key level. So the chance for a bearish extension is increasing.
4 Hrs: Well, after some consolidation yesterday and today it looks like there is good chance for a bearish Kumo breakout. Slow Stoch turned down again, Price is trading below 100WMA and attacking a very thin Kumo. Future Kumo made its bearish twist and Chikou Span can soon cross below past Price candles too. The key resistance area is 317,30-318.
Strategy: Close existing longs, start to short smalls in spikes, size up position with a decisive 4Hrs Kumo breakout.
