Viés de alta

Atualizado

Capital must flow... From "Dune" the movie "spice must flow"

On chart. Capital flow needs time for processing market. It's called time-lag correlation analysis.

Nota

Renminbi's moving has some huge influence with JPY and DXY (Euro is pegged with usdollar now and is waiting for renminbi achieving target), global indexes, oil will tumble, gold will pop up some and will fall later.

Nota

Morgan Stanley suggest longing EJ and EA, for smaller TF. Goldman sachs suggest UJ and UC for end of this year. They're both bet on RMB.

Nota

This long is still valid for daily chart traders. I don't trade short time frame as the result my positions are small but holding very long time. It's for investment class traders but not scalpers.

Nota

Added more longs

Nota

Kiwi is weakening... rumors are spreading from ECB officer.

Nota

China PBOC foreign reserves is showing the way. tradingeconomics.com/china/foreign-exchange-reserves

Nota

Previous moving is unhealthy let's see the bounce.

Nota

Here's some takes. OZ dollar will fall following the oil and will fall with the DXY too. Why is that strange correlation happening? Because Usdollar is representing inflation now.

Nota

This is a very nice long now. We're looking at CFETS and USDCNY together instead of looking USDCNY only. Forex market is more complicated than you think. One pair has 8 possibilities 6 combinations and 4 directions.

Nota

Nota

If the cycle is good the DXY should have topped after the first hike but we have a new high before the second hike. EURUSD is at new low but this is very suspicious for me from the long term perspective.
A good opportunity for long and tight stop loss, take your profits quickly.

Nota

This's EURNZD which is worth of looking at now. I don't suggest shorting the AUD because the DXY weakness will push it up in the overheat phase where FRB hikes.

Nota

I tagged the GDT auction prices on chart for showing the food inflation failure which will make New Zealand GDP dropping and Kiwi more down side. GDT price source for respect house rule.
globaldairytrade.info

Nota

The DXY and the food price are correlated well for a very long time. This's what analyst view but not scalpers. Analyst can trade all scalpers methods but would rather to trade investment class orders which means more risks and more profits from monthly weekly time frame. Even if you can't understand the methodology doesn't mean it is a rumor, right?

Nota

In the nature we trust. Trading harmonic patterns is simple and beautiful.
Many lines were removed for protecting methodologies.

Nota

From forex factory and FXCM and other web sites the speculator sentiments are heavily net short the EURUSD. ( EURUSD -1.95, AUDUSD -1.53, heavily net long the NZDUSD +3.3).
I've been trading in this market for about 10 years. Mostly time the market will be against the speculators and scalpers. There's less possibility that the market will help speculators. As an good habit, scalpers should always check the sentiments before trading.

Nota

Last year's movie star is Japanese Yen ( topped by Brexit) a currency that I heavily invested and took profits already. This year of 2017 let's watch the OZ dollar. Also I'm warning scalpers that Kiwi and Loony could be among those the worst performance currencies in 2017. I'll publish a new idea for showing the correlation between DXY and EURUSD soon.

Nota

The movie star is gonna rise... Guys this could be the best investment before the September 2017. A shares markets are correlated with AUDJPY too and avoid the pair EURAUD, it's ranging and could be lower too. This is a signal, BTW.

Nota

OZ dollar shall rise after the PBOC is well educated after the pegging.

Nota

In fact the Brexit should blame to PBOC too. An huge mistake will be corrected after the meeting in Washington.

Nota

A little leak here, in G8 forex market, Sterling weighted at the same level as Yen. If Renminbi crashs the Yen will rise massively to harm SPX500 and DAX which is western civilization most matters. So Sterling has to be ready for replace Yen and U.K may have to deal with huge devaluation from overseas economic model transformation. That's why the Bre must exit. I hope this mistake will end soon. Good for U.K.
Again the market is part of our civilizations and central banks sabotaged it with a liar to cover the mistake which is the nagative interests. In my simulations, all geopolitics and all culture movement are correlated, the butterfly effects.

Nota

Watch out OZ guys, my entry was on Tuesday 7490. I will add more from daily trend pull back, breaking 7800 will open the blue sky. This's a long term trend, take it easy rest in pull backs and enjoy the ride ^^

Nota

Source:
bbc.com/news/uk-politics-39629603
I watched this video carefully and I suggest you guys paying attention to those words at the end of May's speech. Her eyes pointed to the sky, this means she will lose... and Sterling is gonna rise. Did I say UK will turn back to EU? I said that but I couldn't find it in so many comments.
Euro may have some bounce off but still weak. US Dollar and DXY could be weaker.
Good for U.K now.

Nota

AUDUSD and AUDCAD monthly chart updated...

Nota

Now Sterling is dragging down DXY because it's weighted the same as Yen from mathematic equation. No panic here. Yen will follow DXY soon. Normally Yen's devaluation will drag down XAU and core inflations, but the solution is clear. DXY weakness will balance the core inflation and keep it at high level. We may have to wait for a while and the risk on is coming back.
I hope you guys know what is risk on.

Nota

I support U.K. They're open minded and encouraging people not cowards. Do you remember how many Gold medals they got in Olympic games in 2016? The second place with 27 medals. OZ update...

Nota

This's not a buying signal, ok? Just an analysis.

Nota

This's just a simulation for analyst using not a signal.

Nota

Source: ( This joke makes me laughing for an while, very good relationship, if you understand men's jokes)
edition.cnn.com/2017/06/15/asia/turnbull-trump-australia-speech/index.html
I just noticed he's name is Turnbull...

Nota

AUDUSD speculators sentiment: 85% short Vs. 15% ( just rising, multiple triangle)
NZDUSD speculators sentiment: 90% short Vs. 10% ( extremed for 2 weeks)
We're looking for more clues after GDT auction tomorrow.

Nota

The 11th. swing and the 0.7, XAU needs a little squeezing before the rising.

Nota

Looks like it's working but the XAU still has a chance to squeeze, like 2015. This's because China market need a lagging ride in 12 months ( top and squeezing in several months, it depends on where will be the Renminbi's hike)

Nota

We've watched this pair for short 2 months before. This is still very interesting. We could have a target around 1.1000 in yearly cycle.

Nota

Traders! RISK OFF mode!
Please leave stock market or hedge your shares now!
Please look back 2015 crashing. DXY may go down to 86.50 then rises to receive capital squeezing!
1; VIX above 20 again.
2; EA crossed 1.5800 EU zone inflation may go to -2%.
3; Renminbi's devaluation like the Aug. 2015.
4; China incident on March.
Scalpers in forex market should hold short term. It's enough to avoid this kind of risk.

Nota

ECB said they would re-evaluate the policy on March, we would like to see the 1.5800 broken is a valid one or not. It seems that the market is okay with this horizon broken.

Nota

Now it looks like 1.5800 has been appealed, there should be some struggles before the final give up.

Nota

We draw harmonic patterns with very specific fib numbers, this's a great white with fifty-O. There're stop losses in these patterns too.

Nota

We're approaching harmonic target, traders should've risk free already. There could be more struggles around the key level.

Nota

The harmonic great white on 1 hour chart has been stopped out already by break even, target 1.5800 hasn't been reached by topped at 1.5790 level. This's a typical scalpers trade result.
Now we're looking for a bigger harmonic great white on 4 hours chart.

Nota

Redo the same order already.

Nota

Taken partial profits here, in case the 1Hr trend line holds. Move rest positions to break even.

Nota

From here we try to scalp 1Hr trend line based on book.
rule1: once trend line is broken, we should look for the rising candle combinations. If we see the falling candle combinations, the trend mostly will resume.
After draw the trend lines, we wait for 3-4 candles to see the combinations.

Nota

The market is now fighting this out.
rule1: once trend line is broken, we should look for the falling candle combinations. If we see the rising candle combinations, the trend mostly will resume.
The other side is possible too, we have technics without bias.

Nota

Now we're looking for 1 Hr long:
rule1: once trend line is broken, we should look for the falling candle combinations. If we see the rising candle combinations, the trend mostly will resume.

rule2: once market goes to a buy zone, the trend line cut angle should decide the reversal possibilities.
We have no orders yet, because rule3.

Nota

rule3: after examine the cut angle, if we have an higher low then the market has a little chance to rise. If the market turns to drop again, the price should fall below the last low and should break the old trend line again.
Now we look for an entry between 1.5700- 1.5750 without lower than 1.5690. This is better for a stop loss and better for the risk ratio.

Nota

Orders is in at 1.57387 (between 1.5700- 1.5750) Now we can move the younger trend line.

Nota

This is a typical 10K account has risked 3% for one position, risk reward 1.78. Multiple positions should have a better management without risk more than 10%. Now we can move the stop loss to break even or take partial profits by risk free.

Nota

The harmonic target and the 1Hr scalper target both have been met, profits have been taken. Now we're looking for a bigger great white pattern on 4Hrs chart.

Nota

A batman ALT pattern has been identified on 1Hr chart.

Nota

We've 40 pips to go.

Nota

Into a PRZ convergence...

Nota

Follow with the trend, till its end.
If the ECB don't care about EU zone's core inflation down to -2.0%, who cares right? We're holding long after 1.5950 broken. We only look for short trade based on the book rules.

Nota

With this pair EURAUD has monthly closed above the key level formed in 2015. Something has been broken on the yearly chart, market is out of control now. We don't know why the RBA wouldn't raise interests... but it looks like all central banks are wrongly following with China...
The one who is only doing the right thing is the USA. But will they survive forex market crashing?
There are two conditions can change this breaking, BOJ intervention and the AUD ATR becomes bigger than the EUR ATR, which will make AUD benefits more from the Yen's money policy. But will they do it? In a messed up forex market, in the trade war chaos?

Nota

Be careful here, a little too much, reboot the hike soon...

Nota

We have nothing bad here looks like 2008 here in the forex market, the prepared Brexit should have less shock than the one in 2016 summer. we're expecting corrections in the stock market but limited. The market is good, unless this pair go to 2.1, the possibility is very small.
China market should be stable with the reboot hike, but the problem is that we have too much rely on the FRB hike and have spoiled by the weakness of US dollar, with long term point of view, this is unhealthy.
Again, central banks should have hiked 3 years before, following with the USA, that will be very healthy.

Nota

A little over sold here, that’ll probably pull back.

Nota

2020/02/27 Beijing time 00:40
Forex market long term data is always showing us the future before something happens. Before the 911, before the QE and before China collapsing.
Let's see what is it, could be the fake plague now, due to the negative correlation this may be in the EU zone in stead of in the USA.

Nota

2020/03/09 Beijing time 14:12
Be careful now, with BOJ action, this is gonna turn soon. Crisis? not yet.
BOJ is the only one can make this here.

Nota

2020/03/19 Beijing time 16:33
Needs 3 months to get there, in the summer.

Victor.Y.F

Aviso legal

As informações e publicações não devem ser e não constituem conselhos ou recomendações financeiras, de investimento, de negociação ou de qualquer outro tipo, fornecidas ou endossadas pela TradingView. Leia mais em Termos de uso.

Victor.Y.F