ETHUSD Perspective And Levels: 300 Break Or Fake?

ETHUSD Update: Another failed attempt to break the 271 to 291 resistance zone which does not support the bullish argument in terms of price action. If this market has any real buying, the proof will be a sustained break of the 300 weekly high.

If price does not break above the 300 level in its current attempt to rally, it will have sucked in liquidity for the wrong reasons. Any break of a minor support like the 275 level will trigger increased selling because there will be more longs caught in this market. This is usually what happens during false breakouts.

The key levels I am watching are the 251 low and 300 high. These levels will be the low and high of the previous weekly candle once the new weekly candle opens. A break above the 300 level will imply further strength which will have to be supported by some kind of bullish price structure while a break below 250 means price is more likely to retest the lower support zone. No matter what kind of hype you read, keep in mind the alt coins are still following BTC until they prove that they are not, and that proof comes in the form of order flow, not words and opinions or even news.

If BTC sells off and retests previous lows (I wrote about this in my previous report) this market is most likely not going to break any highs. Until this market proves otherwise, I am sticking to my plan for the two scenarios that I have written about previously: 1. Wait for extreme low prices for long term (yearly hold) and 2. Wait for reversal within the 237 to 219 zone for a swing trade and conservative target. If the market does not want to conform to my criteria, that's fine with me, because that means I don't have to manage any risk either.

I am evaluating from a swing trade perspective and that does not mean there is no opportunity at all. For more advanced traders, you have the 267 to 260 minor support (.618 of recent bullish swing and just above .382 of previous bullish swing) which can be a good area for a short term reversal (like the one that occurred at the 250 level). Like I wrote about before, these type of trades require a ton of attention and very well defined trading plans. Certainly not the type of trade for someone who is new.

In summary, this market is stuck within an established resistance zone which increases the risk for any bullish longer time horizon trades. I am still flexible and open to the idea of the market breaking higher, but it has to prove itself in which case I will adjust and look for higher probability setups AFTER it provides the price structure that I need to see. A sustained break above 300 will be the first sign. Otherwise I am just going to stay flat and be prepared if the scenarios I outlined in previous reports materialize.

Questions and comments welcome.