Hello dear friends!
Here is my idea of Ethereum on the 3 day chart.
A picture says more than a thousand words. The long term trend line from March 2020 is broken in December 2021.
Zoom out to see it!
We also see different patterns.
1. A very long bearish rising wedge from 2017 to 2022
2. A bearish rising wedge from mid 2021 to now.
3. Possibly but not yet confirmed, an H&S with the neckline at 2671.
We are currently seeing rebounds in a downtrend!
Ethereum has clearly broken out of this bearish wedge to the downside and I am calculating it to be at the 0.382 fib level of 1058 USD.
I expect an eventual decline to the lower trend line of the large bearish rising wedge possibly even to 655.
This is then immediately the 0.5 fib level of the rising trendline (March 2020) which was broken in December 2021.
However, if Etherum rises above the stop at 4100 USD then we can expect a rise to the top of the long wedge .
Friends remember that the rising wedge is also visible after the (incredible) rise in the US indices. I expect exactly the same there. By the way, there has also been a Hindenburg Omen signal there recently and it is still ongoing. You can read all about Hindenburg Omen on the internet.
This scenario may well fit with the following points, among many others on shorter and longer term.
1. Enormous negative divergences on a macro level.
2. Rising interest rates due to gigantic inflation everywhere in the world. Caused by unlimited printing of money and growing debt. The only way to get rid of this mountain of debt is inflation! That is not what the markets want and eventually all the borrowed money that is now invested in the markets has to be returned.
3. The Russia-Ukraine conflict I wrote about before. The press is full of it.
4. The 4-year cycle that ended on January 1, 2022.
5. The downward trend in almost all crypto currencies. Lower bottoms and lower tops.
6. The europhoria and skyrocketing expectations. Everyone wants to buy crypto because of the huge increases, which are largely due to the money printed by the EU and the FED. That is the beginning of the end.
7. The energy crisis for which there is no solution. Everything must be green but there is no alternative for the citizens . Then the conflict with Russia which is the biggest supplier for gas in the EU.
8. Covid 19, is there soon an end with new medications and vaccins ? Hopefully yes but there is no certainty. The virus is mutating constantly and want to escape vaccins like bacteria with antibiotics.
Lot of negative elemants but we never know for 100% sure. Again if we can break the stop level and also in the indices the party can maybe continue for some time more but sooner or later the big dive will come as proven in history.
You can of course trade but go long with very strict stops as a warning. Money management is the key to keeping your capital.
Good luck dear friends!
Disclaimer This is my view, no advice to buy or sell. Also always do your own research!
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