ETH Is Not Recovering — It’s Reloading

anteontem

ETHEREUM (ETH/USD) — 1H MARKET ANALYSIS
Trend Continuation Setup | Macro-Aligned

1. Market Structure Overview
ETH has completed a sharp bearish impulse and is now stabilizing above the 3,050–3,070 demand base. The recent rebound shows acceptance back into value, forming a short-term higher low on the 1H. Structure is transitioning from sell-off to accumulation-within-range, not a full reversal yet, but conditions favor continuation.

2. Key Levels & Liquidity
Primary Demand: 3,050–3,070 (defended multiple times; liquidity already swept).
Mid-Range Acceptance: ~3,135 (current balance point).
Targets (Liquidity Above):
Target 1: 3,190
Target 2: 3,225
Target 3: 3,260
These targets align with prior intraday highs and resting buy-side liquidity.

3. Macro Context (1H Bias)
Macro conditions remain supportive but cautious. With rate-cut expectations still alive and no immediate risk-off catalyst in the session, ETH tends to outperform during stabilization phases after aggressive sell-offs. Short-term flows favor mean reversion higher as risk appetite returns incrementally.

4. Intraday Scenarios
Primary Scenario (Bullish Continuation):
Shallow pullback into 3,105–3,115, followed by bullish continuation.
Break and hold above 3,150 opens the path to 3,190 → 3,225 → 3,260.
Invalidation / Risk Scenario:
Acceptance below 3,050 on a 1H close invalidates the setup and reopens downside toward 3,000 psychological support.

5. Trading Guidance
Favor buy the dip setups near demand; avoid chasing mid-range.
Use confirmation on pullbacks (rejection wicks / bullish closes).
Manage risk tightly; volatility expansion is likely once liquidity above is targeted.

Discipline beats prediction — wait for structure, trade the confirmation, and let liquidity do the work.

há 17 horas

Trade ativo

why ETH Sold Off:
The sell-off was driven primarily by macro factors, not organic ETH weakness:
- Sudden risk-off positioning emerged as markets reacted to renewed uncertainty around global monetary policy expectations, triggering broad de-risking across high-beta assets.
- USD strength and yield volatility briefly returned, pressuring crypto markets and forcing liquidation of leveraged long positions built during the prior stabilization phase.
- Liquidity-driven liquidation amplified the move, as stops below the 3,050 demand zone were triggered in quick succession, accelerating downside momentum beyond technical invalidation levels.
This type of move is typical when markets are thin and positioned one-sided structure gives way to liquidity first.

Updated Market Structure
Following the flush, ETH is no longer trending. Price is now transitioning into a range-bound stabilization phase, characterized by:
Reduced directional conviction
Volatility compression after liquidation
Buyers and sellers reassessing positioning
The market is effectively waiting for the next macro catalyst before committing to a new trend.

Forward Outlook
Short-term bias: Sideways / consolidation
Environment: Wait-and-see mode ahead of macro releases and policy guidance
Strategy: Avoid directional bias; focus on range extremes or stay flat
Until new macro information reintroduces conviction, ETH is likely to oscillate within a defined range rather than trend.

Conclusion:
Last night’s move was a liquidity and macro shock, not a trend failure. With the flush complete, ETH is now in reset mode consolidating and waiting for the next decisive macro signal to define direction.