Trading Plan for Tuesday, April 30th, 2024
Trading Plan for Tuesday, April 30th, 2024
Market Sentiment: Bullish, within a consolidation period likely followed by a breakout. Exercise caution and patience with trades.
Key Supports
Immediate Supports: 5127-30, 5121 (major), 5108
Major Supports: 5083 (major), 5067 (major), 5039 (major)
Key Resistances
Near-term Resistance: 5136, 5150-55 (major), 5176 (major), 5191 (major)
Major Resistances: 5205-5208 (major), 5230, 5246 (major), 5270-75 (major)
Trading Strategy
Consolidation Breakout: Anticipate a breakout from the current 5120-5155 consolidation range. Plan accordingly for both bull and bear breakout scenarios.
Long Opportunities: Prioritize failed breakdowns at 5121 for potential long entries. Focus on bids within the current range and knife-catches on major supports if deep flushes occur (5067, 5039).
Short Opportunities: Due to the potential for a strong breakout, approach shorts cautiously. The 5176 and 5191 levels offer shorting opportunities, but with increased risk in the bullish environment. Utilize level-to-level profit-taking.
Risk Management: Implement disciplined risk management in this potentially volatile period.
Bull Case
Holding Support: Defending the 5120 support within the current consolidation range is crucial for bulls.
Breakout and Retest: Look for an upside breakout from the 5155 resistance area, followed by a successful retest for further confirmation.
Targeting Higher Levels: A breakout could trigger an upward move, focusing on targets at 5176, potentially extending to 5191.
Bear Case
Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 5121 signals a downward move. Watch for a bounce/failed breakdown as an entry point for a short position, with level-to-level profit-taking.
News: Top Stories for April 30th, 2024
Market Dynamics and Corporate Earnings
Global Activity: High activity with 1,300 company earnings reports expected; Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting closely watched for rate decision insights.
Sector Highlights: Tech sector leads with major gains by Nvidia and Super Micro; Financials gain on rate cut hopes; Real Estate and Energy sectors lag.
Economic Indicators and Central Bank Decisions
FOMC Meeting: Coming up on 5/1
Jobs Data: Upcoming release expected to influence Fed's future decisions, especially on inflation control.
International Markets
Asian Markets: Mixed responses with Japan's Nikkei up and Shanghai Composite down.
European Central Bank: Anticipated to follow Fed with potential rate cuts amid inflation challenges.
Analysts' Projections and Market Sentiment
Future Rate Cuts: Initially expected in mid-2024, now possibly delayed due to persistent high inflation.
Investor Outlook: Cautiously optimistic but prepared for potential volatility due to uncertain monetary policy outcomes.
Market Sentiment: Bullish, within a consolidation period likely followed by a breakout. Exercise caution and patience with trades.
Key Supports
Immediate Supports: 5127-30, 5121 (major), 5108
Major Supports: 5083 (major), 5067 (major), 5039 (major)
Key Resistances
Near-term Resistance: 5136, 5150-55 (major), 5176 (major), 5191 (major)
Major Resistances: 5205-5208 (major), 5230, 5246 (major), 5270-75 (major)
Trading Strategy
Consolidation Breakout: Anticipate a breakout from the current 5120-5155 consolidation range. Plan accordingly for both bull and bear breakout scenarios.
Long Opportunities: Prioritize failed breakdowns at 5121 for potential long entries. Focus on bids within the current range and knife-catches on major supports if deep flushes occur (5067, 5039).
Short Opportunities: Due to the potential for a strong breakout, approach shorts cautiously. The 5176 and 5191 levels offer shorting opportunities, but with increased risk in the bullish environment. Utilize level-to-level profit-taking.
Risk Management: Implement disciplined risk management in this potentially volatile period.
Bull Case
Holding Support: Defending the 5120 support within the current consolidation range is crucial for bulls.
Breakout and Retest: Look for an upside breakout from the 5155 resistance area, followed by a successful retest for further confirmation.
Targeting Higher Levels: A breakout could trigger an upward move, focusing on targets at 5176, potentially extending to 5191.
Bear Case
Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 5121 signals a downward move. Watch for a bounce/failed breakdown as an entry point for a short position, with level-to-level profit-taking.
News: Top Stories for April 30th, 2024
Market Dynamics and Corporate Earnings
Global Activity: High activity with 1,300 company earnings reports expected; Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting closely watched for rate decision insights.
Sector Highlights: Tech sector leads with major gains by Nvidia and Super Micro; Financials gain on rate cut hopes; Real Estate and Energy sectors lag.
Economic Indicators and Central Bank Decisions
FOMC Meeting: Coming up on 5/1
Jobs Data: Upcoming release expected to influence Fed's future decisions, especially on inflation control.
International Markets
Asian Markets: Mixed responses with Japan's Nikkei up and Shanghai Composite down.
European Central Bank: Anticipated to follow Fed with potential rate cuts amid inflation challenges.
Analysts' Projections and Market Sentiment
Future Rate Cuts: Initially expected in mid-2024, now possibly delayed due to persistent high inflation.
Investor Outlook: Cautiously optimistic but prepared for potential volatility due to uncertain monetary policy outcomes.
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