#ES_F Overview and Prep for the Week
Atualizado
This chart was made using volume profile to try and capture areas of interest and bigger picture over all.
We broke into this range June 12th, held above and that gave us a test higher where we found our first good resistance and sold back down to the break out area where we ran out of supply to go lower and price came back inside Value.
End of the month once we took the stops over the middle of Value that gave us short covering and a move outside of Value but that was a Friday before a holiday so went sideways and closer to RTH we broke back inside taking the stops to give us the flush.
Selling looked strong but we never broke VAL instead we found the bid that took us back towards VAH where after we took the stops from previous failed break out it gave us the buying to take us into resistance.
What can we see now? Well few things that stand out here, so far this was 1st test of resistance, can see we got extended away, it was done during Globex hours when volume is lighter and its much easier to move the price around.
We hit the top of double value area, came back in, tried to break out and failed. All this kind of tells us that there is chance this is failed break out away from this range for now, this also tells us that now we can possibly target the middle of this doubled value area and if we break that we could target the bottom of it which would put us back around 4490s-80s for this week with maybe a bounce from there?
I think we have to see here how long it takes for us to come back in as we could potentially find some support here and do some chop unless we get some size selling that will break it quicker. Another question is will we break it after just first rejection from the high or might we try to make another run towards 4540s before we get back under 4525-08 IF we get back at all, of course we could pull back, consolidate and make another push over the high but so far its not ready for that and we have those lower stops lined up around 25-08 area that if we take could give us more selling towards 4490-80.
We could also take the stops, find support around 4500 to take us for another push towards 4525 that would build up some more supply to take us down towards support.
This 4550-4480 is our balance area going into this week until broken and we trade within it.
Levels to Watch Intraday :
Current Support 4528.50-4519
Current Resistance 4551.25-4543.75
Targets if we build up enough to break
Support if we Break Current : S1 4512.75-05.50 // S2 4487.25-79.75
Would need to see a break of 79-75 and hold under for Continuation Lower
Possible to find support at S2 or Before around 4495
Resistance if we Break Current : R1 4562.50-70
Key area would need to see break for anything over.
We broke into this range June 12th, held above and that gave us a test higher where we found our first good resistance and sold back down to the break out area where we ran out of supply to go lower and price came back inside Value.
End of the month once we took the stops over the middle of Value that gave us short covering and a move outside of Value but that was a Friday before a holiday so went sideways and closer to RTH we broke back inside taking the stops to give us the flush.
Selling looked strong but we never broke VAL instead we found the bid that took us back towards VAH where after we took the stops from previous failed break out it gave us the buying to take us into resistance.
What can we see now? Well few things that stand out here, so far this was 1st test of resistance, can see we got extended away, it was done during Globex hours when volume is lighter and its much easier to move the price around.
We hit the top of double value area, came back in, tried to break out and failed. All this kind of tells us that there is chance this is failed break out away from this range for now, this also tells us that now we can possibly target the middle of this doubled value area and if we break that we could target the bottom of it which would put us back around 4490s-80s for this week with maybe a bounce from there?
I think we have to see here how long it takes for us to come back in as we could potentially find some support here and do some chop unless we get some size selling that will break it quicker. Another question is will we break it after just first rejection from the high or might we try to make another run towards 4540s before we get back under 4525-08 IF we get back at all, of course we could pull back, consolidate and make another push over the high but so far its not ready for that and we have those lower stops lined up around 25-08 area that if we take could give us more selling towards 4490-80.
We could also take the stops, find support around 4500 to take us for another push towards 4525 that would build up some more supply to take us down towards support.
This 4550-4480 is our balance area going into this week until broken and we trade within it.
Levels to Watch Intraday :
Current Support 4528.50-4519
Current Resistance 4551.25-4543.75
Targets if we build up enough to break
Support if we Break Current : S1 4512.75-05.50 // S2 4487.25-79.75
Would need to see a break of 79-75 and hold under for Continuation Lower
Possible to find support at S2 or Before around 4495
Resistance if we Break Current : R1 4562.50-70
Key area would need to see break for anything over.
Comentário
Support held this morning as price couldnt get inside the 4528.50-19 pocket and gave a trade towards 51-43 Resistance. That was our area to watch for possible continuation towards next Resistance target, as price broke 51-43 and held above we then got a push into next target at 62.50-70. We tagged the lower end of resistance and found size selling. Dont want to say that it could be our top, at least for some period maybe, so far this seems like a look above 4525-4500 area and we are distributing over, size selling would take us back there and back towards 4490-80s. We would need to hold 51-43 area for Support and make a move over 62-70 for this move to hold, if we cant hold we will head for lower Support targetsComentário
If we wont have size sellers then we might spend some time and trade between the Current Support and Resistance which are now 4570-62.50 and 51.25-43.75, need to see how soon it will be ready to move.Comentário
So far just holding this 51-43 temp support pocket and building inventory over it, if it doesnt hold today we should see 4525-19 area get tested and thats the spot to watch for any continuation. Lets see what the market does on data, unless we take out 62-70 and accept above.Comentário
51-43 Support held and gave a trade towards Current resistance, now we could see another attempt at 70 area and spot we will watch if we can stay above to continue or come back in. If it does come back in strong and break 51-48 area then probably wont be going lower today. Over 70 hold could bring 85 but need to be careful as there could be size selling hereComentário
Made a push into 89-84 middle area of next balance, we went sideways all night inside it. Our Resistance for today is 4594.75-4603.25 and Current Support is 4576.50-70 area, might get a test of it at some point where we would watch for continuation if 70 breaks can target 4462-57 area there is Support under it at 55-49 that would need to break for any lower. On the upside if we dont get a test of Support or hold it then could see move back towards 89-85 and towards Resistance where we watch for continuation. So far market had a big party and might need cleaning, will have to see how things play outComentário
Looks like might head for resistance first, if we take out HOD but cant stay above 4603-4599 then possible to see move back towards 89-85 and maybe support later. Could be a tighter range dayComentário
If this resistance holds as support and we take out 03 again, it could give a move towards 10-14, if not we still have time to visit support. But if 94-90 area cant break we can stay in this balance as well as we thought we might have a smaller range day to do some clean upComentário
Levels on this chart are currently working very nice. We traveled outside of range, created supply. Once back under 4525-08 we accepted back inside this range we traded towards the bottom and found the bid at the other Edge at 4375-59. From edge back inside value and today we failed at VAH which gave us a trade back to the mean, then VAL and then end of day flush back towards the edge. This is our range for time being until we are ready to move out. We now have Supply over 4525-08 // 4478-65 those are our Key areas and holding under means continued weakness. We don't have enough Supply yet to break out of range to the down side towards the contract gap roll but if we stay in this 4370-4440 area long enough we will. 4375.75-59.50 Our Key Support for that to happen and for market to have any shot at 4500 anytime soon we would need to hold over 4487-79.
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