12/1 Trading Plan - Thursday Recap and Day Ahead

1 de dez. de 2023

📊 Market Sentiment

Neutral to Short-Term Bearish: Entering December, market sentiment is mixed with a cautious outlook. Traders are closely watching Jay Powell's speeches for potential market-moving insights. After a record-breaking November, markets are consolidating, suggesting a period of uncertainty.

🔄 Recap

November concluded with a mix of bullish runs and consolidation phases. The S&P 500 Index Futures were dominated by a tight consolidation range between 4555-4575, with 4555 emerging as a crucial support level. The market ended November with a late-day squeeze but spent the majority of the session in choppy trading.

📈 The Markets Overnight

🌏 Asia: Down
🌍 Europe: Up a bit
🌎 US Index Futures: Down a bit
🛢 Crude Oil: Unchanged
💵 Dollar: Up slightly
🧐 Yields: Down a bit
🔮 Crypto: Up

🌏 Major Global CatalystsAnticipating Jay Powell speeches today

🔍 Key Structures

• 4658: A significant resistance level from mid-2023.
  
• 4620-22: A pivotal trendline connecting key market highs.
  
• 4573-75: A recent resistance zone.
  
• 4555-50: A heavily tested support level, crucial for market direction.
  
• 4533-36: A key support, previously a resistance.
  
• 4510-14, 4493-96, 4447-50, 4424: Additional support levels to monitor.
  

📉 Support Levels

• 4550-52 (major)
  
• 4561, 4568
  
• 4533-36 (major)
  
• 4520, 4525
  
• 4510-14 (major)
  
• 4506
  
• 4493-96 (major)
  
• 4472, 4479
  
• 4447-50 (major)
  
• 4420-24 (major), 4418
  
• 4399, 4405 (major), 4375-77 (major)
  

📈 Resistance Levels

• 4572-75 (major)
  
• 4580 (major), 4590-92
  
• 4597
  
• 4607-09 (major)
  
• 4620-22 (major)
  
• 4631-33 (major), 4643
  
• 4648, 4657 (major)
  
• 4666, 4672, 4683
  
• 4693, 4701 (major), 4710 (major)
  
• 4720, 4731 (major), 4742, 4752 (major)
  

📝 Trading Plan

Bullish Scenario: As long as the 4550-55 support holds, a continuation of the uptrend is likely. Breaking above 4575 could signal further upward movement, with targets at 4590, 4607-09, and 4620.

Bearish Scenario: A break below 4550 could indicate a shift to a bearish trend, with potential short positions at major resistance levels. Watch for 4550 and 4533-36 as critical points for breakdowns.

💡 Wrap Up

The market is currently in a consolidation phase, with 4550-4575 as the dominant range. Traders should watch for a breakout or breakdown from this range for directional clues. As always, maintaining discipline and focusing on key levels is essential for successful trading.

Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.